Columbus, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

437
FXUS64 KEPZ 190448
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1048 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms area wide
   Friday afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of heavy
   rain and flooding.
- Drier and warmer weather this weekend into next week. Rain
   chances more limited to area mountains. Lowland highs in the
   lower nineties next week, warmer than normal for late
   September.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
A few lingering rain showers tonight, mostly along the
International Border. Staying mostly overcast tonight will keep
temperatures warmer than usual, with lows in the mid-60s across
much of the desert lowlands.
Weak shortwave aloft moving across Arizona and New Mexico on
Friday will dampen the influence of the upper high centered over
northern Mexico. Larger-scale synoptic ascent will result in much
greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening area wide. Storm chances beginning across western New
Mexico around noon, spreading quickly across the Rio Grande valley
and I-10 corridor by 4-6PM. 00Z HRRR run suggests 80-90% coverage
of storms tomorrow.
Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for numerous
thunderstorms on Friday across southern NM and far west TX.
800-1200 J/kg of CAPE combined with precipitable water 1.2-1.4"
(around the 90-percentile seasonally) will be sufficient for
numerous (80-90% coverage) storms, moving west-to-east across the
region. Main concern will be flooding, especially within the
pockets of 1.00" or greater. Storm chances will come to an end
late Friday night as the shortwave exits.
This weekend looks mostly dry as the Mexican high pressure builds
and ridging flow suppresses the majority of storm chances.
Moisture content also drops, with PWs falling to around 1.0".
Can`t rule out isolated storms over the mountains and high
terrain, but it certainly looks like El Paso/Las Cruces will
remain dry over the weekend. We should also see a subtle warming
trend over the weekend and into early next week, with lowland
highs back in the lower 90s each afternoon.
Major differences in rain chances between the global deterministic
models this cycle. All models agree on a general pattern of a
broad upper high over northern Mexico and a Pacific low off the
coast of southern CA. GFS bring the Pacific low much closer,
pulling in greater amounts of moisture out of Baja. ECMWF is more
confident in the drier solution. NBM is leaning very heavy into
the drier ECMWF ensembles right now, thus very little mention of
rain in this forecast for next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Lingering SHRA overnight, with skies SCT-BKN120. Surface winds
040-080 AOB 5 knots tonight. Brief clearing of skies expected
tomorrow morning before another round of TSRA affects S NM and
KELP TAF sites between 20-04Z tomorrow evening. PROB30 included at
all TAF sites, highlighting the most likely window of impacts.
Temporary visibility reductions, heavy rain, and wind gusts up to
30 knots will be possible around TS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period.
Abundant moisture will result in continued storm chances through
Friday with potential for heavy rainfall, especially in northern
and western areas. Drier air moves in during the weekend, lowering
storm chances into next week. Low storm chances linger for area
mtns on Saturday due to leftover moisture. Outside of gusty and
erratic outflows, winds will be light into next week. Overnight
recoveries stay very good to excellent into the weekend.
Temperatures will be near normal for the rest of the week, then a
few degrees above average.
Min RHs range from 30-50% through Sat, then 20-35%; 50-75% for the
Sacs through Fri, then 30-50%. Vent rates will be poor to good
through Sat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  90  68  91 /  40  30  60  10
Sierra Blanca            60  86  61  86 /  30  30  50  20
Las Cruces               63  85  61  86 /  40  50  50  10
Alamogordo               62  85  60  86 /  40  50  50  10
Cloudcroft               45  62  45  64 /  30  70  50  20
Truth or Consequences    62  81  59  84 /  30  60  50  10
Silver City              57  78  55  81 /  50  80  50  20
Deming                   63  87  61  89 /  40  60  50  10
Lordsburg                63  85  62  86 /  40  70  40  10
West El Paso Metro       69  88  67  88 /  40  30  60  10
Dell City                63  88  63  90 /  40  30  40  10
Fort Hancock             68  92  68  92 /  30  30  50  10
Loma Linda               62  81  60  82 /  40  40  50  10
Fabens                   67  90  65  90 /  40  30  50  10
Santa Teresa             65  87  64  87 /  40  30  60  10
White Sands HQ           65  86  63  87 /  40  50  60  10
Jornada Range            63  84  60  85 /  40  60  50  10
Hatch                    63  87  60  88 /  50  60  50  10
Columbus                 65  89  63  88 /  30  40  50  10
Orogrande                62  84  60  84 /  40  50  60  10
Mayhill                  50  72  51  77 /  30  70  50  20
Mescalero                50  74  49  77 /  30  70  50  20
Timberon                 50  71  49  74 /  40  60  50  20
Winston                  51  74  48  78 /  30  80  50  20
Hillsboro                58  82  56  85 /  40  70  50  20
Spaceport                61  82  58  84 /  40  60  50  10
Lake Roberts             52  77  50  81 /  50  80  50  20
Hurley                   58  81  57  83 /  40  70  50  10
Cliff                    60  85  58  87 /  50  80  40  10
Mule Creek               57  80  55  83 /  40  80  30  10
Faywood                  59  80  58  82 /  50  70  50  10
Animas                   63  86  62  87 /  40  60  40  10
Hachita                  62  85  60  85 /  40  60  50  10
Antelope Wells           61  86  60  87 /  30  60  50  10
Cloverdale               60  81  59  82 /  30  60  50  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion