Concho, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

779
FXUS65 KFGZ 032244
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
344 PM MST Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Expect winds and any remaining showers to decrease
rapidly this evening, with a seasonable and dry weekend coming up.
A chance for showers and thunderstorms will return late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A strong trough moving across the central Sierras and
into southern Nevada today is responsible for our windy conditions.
This trough also pulled up some moisture into eastern Arizona and
some isolated convection has developed. Any remnants of this
convection will be in New Mexico by nightfall.
The trough passes to our north overnight and our gradients basically
collapse over the weekend. Expect seasonable temperatures and far
less wind a a result.
Next week starts out fairly innocuous, just a typical breezy and
seasonably warm fall pattern. However, by Thursday or so, things
start to get interesting. Solutions now have a fairly deep west coast
trough interacting with at least one hurricane, maybe two. At the
very least, it looks like a decent slug of sub-troical moisture will
be dragged north, if not remnants of a storm, or both. We are a
ways out still, but it may be time to start thinking that days 5
or 6 onward will be quite stormy.
&&
.AVIATION...Saturday 04/00Z through Sunday 05/00Z...VFR conditions
are expected. Be on the lookout for isolated SHRA/TSRA along the
AZ/NM border through 03Z. Winds southwest at 20-30 kts with gusts
to 40 kts through 02Z then lightening up to southwest 10-20 kts
overnight. Local gusts 30-35 kts downwind of terrain features
through the night.
OUTLOOK...Sunday 05/00Z through Tuesday 07/00Z...VFR conditions
and mainly clear skies are forecast. During the day Saturday look
for southwest winds at 15-25 kts gusting to 35 kts east of a
KFLG-Four Corners line. Elsewhere, winds 5-15 kts gusting to 25
kts. Winds lowering to southwest at 5-15 kts with a few gust of
20-25 kts on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Temperatures dropping to 5
degrees below average on Saturday and Sunday with mostly dry
conditions. Minimum RH values will be 15-25% both days. Winds SW-W
15-25 mph, gusts 30-35 mph on Saturday, SW 10-20 mph on Sunday.
Monday through Wednesday..High temperatures remain 5 degrees below
average Monday, warming to average on Tuesday and Wednesday with
continued dry conditions. Look for minimum RH values between 10-25%
each afternoon. Winds will be SW 10-20 mph each day.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-
006-007-009-012-013-015-039-040.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion