Congaree, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

499
FXUS62 KCAE 191025
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
625 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of a few isolated showers again Friday, the area
remains generally dry under a retreating upper trough and
building surface high pressure through the weekend. Warming
temps can also be expected through the weekend. Slightly cooler
temperatures return for the start of the next week with a
potential for rain increasing slightly toward midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Patchy fog early this morning.
- A stray shower or storm possible this afternoon but most of
 the area remains dry.
Water vapor imagery early this morning indicates a shortwave
trough moving into the Southeast. Southwesterly flow ahead of it
has kept PWATs around an inch and a half according to satellite
derived PWAT estimates. Forecast soundings indicate that much
of this moisture is in the low levels with mostly clear skies.
Model consensus continues to show patchy fog developing just
before sunrise. Guidance favors the trough lifting over the area
today with high temperatures generally expected to be around
average as heights will be near average in the upper 80s to
around 90. A lingering surface trough over the area along with
the inland penetration of the sea breeze will lead to the
possibility of a stray shower or storm in the south/southeastern
portion of the area this afternoon but most of the area is
expected to remain dry. Similar conditions expected tonight with
light winds and clear skies leading to favorable radiational
cooling with lows generally in the mid 60s and patchy fog
possible early Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Warm and mainly dry conditions remain.
Surface ridging east of the Appalachians will build southward
through the weekend. Aloft, the area will be between a weak
ridge moves north of the area, and a weak trough passing off to
the south. Airmass will remain on the drier side, so at this
time rain chances will be rather low, and a dry forecast is on
tap through the weekend. As for temperatures, ensembles remain
tightly clustered in the upper 80s Saturday, and mainly between
85-88 on Sunday, which is close to the NBM numbers.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Rain chances return for mid-week.
Surface ridging will remain in control through mid-week, while
aloft an upper trough approaches by mid-week. By that time,
moisture will finally be on the increase, allowing for a higher
chance for rainfall by Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday. As
for temperatures, ensembles do show a much larger spread as we
get into the middle of the week, so although the NBM has highs
in the lower 90s, confidence is not as high that those readings
will ultimately be met, especially if rain and clouds enter the
mix by the middle of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Early morning fog possible at all terminals but otherwise VFR.
Some patchy fog is impacting OGB/AGS early this morning, with
mostly MVFR visibilities, although occasional IFR visibilities
remain possible around sunrise. Winds are already light and
variable and expected to remain light and variable through
sunrise. Slight increase out of the southeast late morning into
afternoon but remaining around 5 knots. Cumulus clouds develop
around 5kft by afternoon. A very low chance of a stray shower or
storm but confidence is too low to include in TAF. Guidance is
indicating the potential for visibility restrictions once again
tonight. For now have just included 6SM and BR but it will be
possible that restrictions develop.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A relatively dry air mass will hinder
widespread rainfall and restrictions. However short periods of early
morning fog/stratus remains possible at AGS and OGB through the
extended..
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion