Cornelius, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

371
FXUS62 KGSP 110548
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
148 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will persist over the region through this weekend.
A gradual warming trend will begin today and continue into early
next week, with little chance for rain until at least Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 am Thursday: Upper heights will fall weakly across
the region during the near term, as an upper low moves into the
northeast Conus/northern Mid-Atlantic later this morning, with some
weak short wave troughs diving west and south of this feature into
the southern Appalachians and vicinity. Remnant inverted surface
ridge will continue to weaken over the area today, with attendant
air mass modification. Temps will finally warm to near-normal
levels this afternoon, while surface dewpoints will also increase
a bit in comparison with the past couple of days. In fact, some
guidance sources allow for weak destabilization in the warmest part
of the CWA (i.e., the upper Savannah River Valley) this afternoon,
and convection-allowing models have been consistent in initiating
some spotty showers in these areas as weak short wave troughs
approach late in the day. It`s still debatable if this warrants
anything more than a 10% PoP, and we will continue to withhold
any mentionable chance of precip today. Despite the warmer overall
conditions, relatively dry air, mostly clear skies and light winds
should allow min temps to dip several degrees below normal tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1256 AM EDT Thursday: By Friday morning, an elongated trough
axis will be in place along the NC coast, with stout ridging
to our west.  A shortwave embedded within the ridge will swing
through that ridge, diving down through the eastern Great Lakes
region into the Ohio Valley and slipping across the Carolinas
by Saturday night.  But, although it appears a weak reinforcing
cold front could push through at the surface, the environment
will be quite dry, and so the passing "system" should amount to
little more than an increase in cirrus as it crosses the region.
Temperatures will remain below normal on Friday, before finally
climbing back to about normal on Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 118 AM EDT Thursday: The 00z suite of operational guidance
continues to depict an upper low developing during the early part of
next week, but with still-uneven consensus on the location of that
low.  The most recent 12z LREF cycle has perhaps 30-40% of members
developing the low far enough south that some Atlantic moisture
could be advected into the area, albeit with a long fetch...so
there`s an outside chance of some ridgetop showers returning by
Wednesday afternoon or so.  Otherwise, expect temperatures to
steadily climb early in the week, likely landing above normal on
Monday and Tuesday; temps on Wednesday and beyond will depend on the
evolution of the upper low but may actually begin to cool off again.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The main challenge this forecast period will
again be forecasting the extent and timing of mountain valley fog
and low stratus later this morning. The latest derived satellite
imagery reveals patchy areas are already forming in the valleys
west and north of KAVL. However, subtle trends in observational data
over the past 12 hours suggest restrictions may be less widespread
than on Wed morning...and KAVL is often one of the last valley
locations in western NC for fog/low stratus to form. As such,
opted to go with prevailing MVFR beginning at 09Z, with tempos
for IFR between 10-12Z. Any restrictions at KAVL should end by 13Z
or so. Otherwise, VFR is forecast through the period. An area of
low MVFR/IFR stratus over central NC will continue to ooze west
toward our area, and may reach far eastern areas (east of our
TAF sites) by 12Z. However, current indications are that the low
clouds will struggle to reach KCLT before strong mixing develops
after sunrise. Will continue to advertise a few hours of FEW015
to hint at the small potential that the low clouds will make a
run at KCLT. Winds will generally be light N/NE through the period.
Outlook: Dry and mostly VFR through the end of the week, except for
the continued potential for morning mountain valley fog and/or low
stratus.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JDL

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion