Covert, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

615
FXUS63 KGRR 171114
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
Issued by National Weather Service Northern Indiana 711 AM EDT Wed
Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog This Morning, Few Showers Thursday
- Chance For Showers And Storms This Weekend Into Next Week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Fog This Morning, Few Showers Thursday
Expect areas of lower visibility this morning for areas mainly along
and east of US-131. Visibilities may drop down to a mile with the
best chance for any denser fog along US-127. Fog should clear
shortly after sunrise, with light winds and sunny skies expected for
the remainder of the day.
A round of positive vorticity advection and 700mb moisture advection
move in this evening as a shortwave trough passes to the northeast.
The increase in moisture may be enough for some isolated showers to
develop along a backdoor cold front moving through from northeast to
southwest Thursday morning and afternoon. Therefore added 20 percent
PoPs to the forecast in coordination neighboring offices.
- Chance For Showers And Storms This Weekend Into Next Week
A series of troughs move through toward the second half of the
weekend into the first half of next week. The first shortwave trough
is on the weaker side, but with a little more moisture in place
along with some increase 850 mb flow and positive vorticity
advection the signal is there for isolated to scattered showers and
some thunderstorms (20 to 30 percent) as early as Saturday night and
continuing into the day Sunday. Chances (30 to 50 percent) continue
Sunday night into Monday within the southwest flow ahead of a deeper
trough. Looking at cluster analysis the evolution of this trough
varies along with the timing. Some guidance suggests a cut off low
develops and lingers into Wednesday while others show more of an
open wave pattern. With this uncertainty stuck with the NBM PoPs
through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Areas of fog this morning may drop visibilities down to 1 to 5 SM
through 13Z. The remainder of the day through tonight expect VFR
conditions with light and variable winds. This afternoon the lake
breeze develops with light westerly winds at MKG into the early
evening before becoming light and variable again.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Light and variable winds along with low wave heights continue.
Expect more onshore flow this afternoon as the lake breeze
develops. Winds build tomorrow behind the backdoor cold front with
northerly winds around 10 to 20 knots. Easterly winds then return
until more southwesterly flow develops Sunday and continues into
next week. With this change in the wind there will also be chances
for showers and even a few thunderstorms. At this time Small Craft
Advisory conditions are not expected over the next week.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion