Cromwell, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

953
FXUS64 KOUN 021729
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Unseasonably warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions to
   persist into early next week.
-  Cold front is expected early-to-mid next week with rain/storm
   chances and cooler weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Still an axis of scattered to broken mid-level cloud cover from the
showers and storms that occurred this morning in northern and
central Oklahoma. Would expect with ridging developing this
afternoon that the cloud cover will continue to decay. Otherwise
expect a hot rest of the afternoon with highs near 90 in Oklahoma
and the mid 90s in western north Texas. Weak southeast winds and
clear skies tonight with temperatures holding in the low 60s.
Meister
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Hot and dry will be the name of the game during the short-term
period. A trough will reach the West Coast tomorrow and start
trundling eastward, but all that will do for us is further sharpen
and amplify the downstream ridge. Don`t see a CAM signal for the
same sort of weak advective showers in the morning that we`ve seen
the last few days, but the LLJ will be near the northwest fringe of
our area if that winds up being something to watch for. Temperatures
just as hot tomorrow.
We`ll still be very warm on Saturday, but overall highs may come
down a couple of degrees. That`s not because of the potential for a
cold front (southeast winds continue, and will actually strengthen)
or the potential for precipitation, but because the trough`s
approach will cause mid-level heights to drop a little bit. Gusts in
northwest Oklahoma could very well reach 30+ mph during the day on
Saturday.
Meister
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
On Sunday, a cold front is expected to approach or perhaps move into
portions of northern Oklahoma.  As a result, low chances of showers
and storms will remain in the forecast, mainly for northwestern
Oklahoma.  It unlikely there will be enough organized convection to
push the front farther south into Oklahoma.  It`s possible the
frontal boundary will stall or lift back to the north on Monday.
Tuesday into early Wednesday, a clipper-like system will move across
the northern Plains/Upper midwest.  This system, along with perhaps
a shortwave trough moving across the Rockies/central Plains, will
push a frontal boundary farther south into Oklahoma.  This will
bring additional chances of showers and storms Tuesday into
Wednesday.  Rain and storm chances will remain on the low side for
now (20-30%).  The front should also cool temperatures several
degrees, especially across the northern half of Oklahoma.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category through the
entire forecast period. Surface winds will persist out of the
south around 10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts at some terminals. A
bit windier in parts of far western Oklahoma with sustained winds
at 15-20 kts gusting to 25 kts at terminal KCSM. Expecting surface
winds to lighten up and back southeast by 01Z then increase a bit
while veering southerly after 16Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  89  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         63  91  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  63  91  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           64  90  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     64  91  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         65  90  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...68

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion