Deadwood, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

030
FXUS66 KPQR 011810
AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
1110 AM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Updated Aviation discussion and Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...Fall-like weather continues through much of the
first week of October. Expect periods of rain/rain showers
through at least Thursday as a low pressure system brings cooler
and unsettled weather across the region. Breezy southerly winds
and chances for thunderstorms are expected as a low pressure
system remains offshore. Any thunderstorms that develop will
bring potential for small hail, gusty winds, and funnel clouds.
Dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures this weekend,
before warming above normal early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday...Another round of
precipitation is on deck for today as a low centered off
Vancouver Island will push a frontal system across the region.
Expect clouds and rain showers through this evening as the
frontal system moves onshore and lifts across the region. This
low pressure system will continue to gradually weaken as it
meanders toward the WA/OR coast through Friday.
Expect showery precipitation through at least Thursday. Cooler
air aloft will also result in elevated instability across the
region, with chances for thunderstorms (15-25%) along the coast
today, spreading inland late this morning with the thunderstorm
threat persisting into the evening. Any passing thunderstorm
can bring gusty winds, heavy rain, and small hail. Based on
local guidance, this weather pattern also sets up the potential
for funnel clouds as well as waterspouts near the coast.
Breezy southerly winds will continue with the strongest winds along
the coast, especially beaches and headlands where wind gusts up
to 45 mph will be likely from late this morning through the
evening. Inland areas will mainly see wind gusts up to 35 mph
for the same time period. There remains a very low (5-10%
chance) of wind gusts exceeding 45 mph within the Willamette
Valley. With leaves still on the trees, there is a small chance
for a few broken tree limbs.
Total rainfall amounts through Thursday are expected to vary
significantly across the area. This makes it difficult to
pinpoint precipitation amounts at a specific location, but the
probabilistic guidance does provide reasonable low-end to high-
end amounts that will be possible through Thursday. Coastal
locations could see anywhere from 0.10-0.25" (10th percentile)
to 0.50-1.25" (90th percentile); while the inland lowlands could
see anywhere from Trace-0.25" (10th percentile) to 0.40-1.00"
(90th percentile). Overall, total rainfall for today through
Thursday is likely (65-85% chance) to be around 0.25-0.75" for
coastal locations and 0.10-0.40" for inland locations.
By Friday, most ensemble members are showing drier weather returning
through the weekend. WPC 500 mb cluster analysis shows relatively
good agreement of the upper low dropping into northern California to
the Great Basin Friday to Saturday. Northwest flow likely to persist
into early weekend which will help keep daytime highs seasonably
cool. There is also fairly good agreement of an upper level
trough dropping out of Canada on Sunday, bringing more north to
northeast flow later Sunday into Monday with dry conditions and
temperatures likely warming back into the 70s for the start of
next week. -42/Hartsock
&&
.AVIATION...A frontal rain band extends across much of the
Willamette Valley to begin the period, with largely VFR vis/cigs
observed and brief reductions to MVFR levels possible before the
band exits eastward by 20z Wed and is replaced by a more showery
distribution of rain through this evening. Isolated thunderstorms
remain possible across much of the region, but confidence in their
occurrence has fallen below thresholds for PROB30 mention at all
sites except KAST; amendments will be issued as necessary for any
thunder that does develop. Southerly to southeasterly winds
continue at 5-10 kt inland and around 15 kt gusting to 20-30 kt
along the coast. Winds will ease as showers dissipate late this
evening, after 03-06z Thu.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions to persist through the
period as the frontal rain band transitions to scattered rain
showers after 20z Wed. MVFR cigs/vis are most likely during the
frontal passage, with other brief reductions possible but low
confidence in showers behind the boundary. Isolated thunder also
remains possible, most likely from 21z Wed through 03z Thu, but
confidence is low in timing and occurrence. Southerly to
southeasterly winds continue at 5-10 kt. -Picard
&&
.MARINE...Buoy observations continue to show elevated seas of
14-18 ft across all waters. Therefore, will maintain the current
Hazardous Seas Warning. Latest guidance continues to indicate a
second period of elevated winds from late Wednesday morning
through late Wednesday evening, mainly for all inner waters zones,
Zone PZZ271. As a result, have issued a Gale Warning for these
zones from late Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
evening. Generally, winds ease somewhat across all waters through
today, but seas will remain elevated through Wednesday night,
with widespread wave heights of 14-18 ft.
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will pose an additional
threat Wednesday. Storms will be capable of producing severely
limited visibility, gusty and erratic winds, lightning, small
hail, and even an isolated water spout in their local area.
Late in the week, the area of low pressure responsible for this
period of active weather will weaken and move inland while high
pressure builds over the northeastern Pacific. Winds will weaken
below 15 kt while seas subside below 10 ft by Thursday evening,
before the more seasonable patterns turns winds out of the north
to northwest at around 10 kt early Saturday morning. -Picard/42
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ210-272-
     273.
Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251>253.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ251>253.
Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ271.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ271.
&&
$$
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NWS PQR Office Area Forecast Discussion