Delray, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

997
FXUS63 KDTX 200008
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
808 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry Saturday, with a chance for showers overnight.
- Mild again Sunday with a higher likelihood for showers and storms,
but severe weather is not expected.
- Wetter conditions at times Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cool-
down midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
Influence of high pressure will result in VFR conditions through
remainder of the evening. Though, northeast flow off Saginaw Bay is
producing a small area of borderline MVFR clouds affecting MBS.
Winds will begin to veer more east to southeast tonight into
tomorrow morning while remaining around 10 knots or less. The wind
trajectory off Lake Erie will then offer possible MVFR stratocu
tonight and tomorrow. Cloud bases settle around 4kft tomorrow
afternoon while precipitation chances expected to hold off until
after 00Z tomorrow evening.
For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms expected tonight and
Saturday.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low to medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet tonight and
  tomorrow.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
DISCUSSION...
Diurnal stratocumulus dissipate this evening offering a period of
mostly clear skies early tonight, but nocturnal cooling may be
inhibited by passing mid-high clouds associated with elevated
warm/moist advection. Boundary-layer condensation pressure deficits
are much larger tonight compared to the prior night, therefore fog
potential should be lower and more sparse in coverage heading into
Saturday morning.
Conditions reminiscent of late summer arrive Saturday as a cut-off
low over the Upper Midwest phases with a shortwave trough dropping
out of the Canadian Prairies. This helps displace the ridge axis
currently over the Great Lakes, causing it to shear downstream into
the longwave trough over northeastern Canada. 850 mb temperatures
hover in the low to perhaps mid teens (Celsius) capping highs AOB
80F for most areas. A west-east thermal gradient develops once again
as light easterly flow persists, keeping readings a bit cooler for
areas to closer to the central Great Lakes. A stalled frontal
boundary over northern IN/OH releases northeastward across western
Lower Michigan as a warm front Saturday while CVA streams in
overhead during the afternoon. CAMs and global models suggest
sufficiently slow upstream dynamics processes should keep the
daytime period mainly dry, with one exception along the immediate
western CWA border. A few showers could arrive before the 00Z hour
approaches. Given increasing confluence within the LLJ corridor,
afternoon gusts should trend toward 20 mph, from the ESE.
First round of potential rainfall arrives Saturday night with the
lead flank of height falls and perturbed mid-level flow. Coverage
will be sparse and rain rates should be held in-check. Portions of
Southeast Michigan, particularly closer to Metro Detroit, are
largely expected to stay dry. A more significant push of ThetaE
advection arrives Sunday, marked by an uptick in surface dewpoints
into the low-mid 60s. This environment does appear more favorable
for pockets of higher rainfall rates given less convective
inhibition and PWATs climbing to around 1.50 inches. The vicinity
upper low then gradually works across the northern Great Lakes
Monday and Tuesday which maintains a tendency for ascent across
southern Lower. Additional opportunities for showers ensue, followed
by cooling trend midweek.
MARINE...
The pressure gradient tightens over the central Great Lakes this
afternoon into Saturday as high pressure tracks southeast across
Ontario and a low pressure system tracks north across Minnesota.
This produces an uptick in northeast wind this afternoon with
southern Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay seeing wind speeds of 15 to 20
kt. Gusts to 25 kt will be possible over Saginaw Bay at times this
evening due to funneling effects. A Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for Outer Saginaw Bay and the Lake Huron nearshore waters
where wave heights will build to 4+ feet tonight. Wind direction
then veers east and east-southeast overnight as the high pressure
reaches the eastern Great Lakes; this focuses the higher magnitude
of wind (sustained 15 to 20 kt, gust to 25 kt) across the northern
portion of Lake Huron through Saturday. Winds of around 15 kt can be
expected across the rest of the region. Probability for showers and
thunderstorms will increase Saturday night and particularly Sunday
as the aforementioned low pressure system sends its warm front
across the region. Wind will prevail out of the southeast at 10 to
15 kt through Sunday before shifting to southwest Monday.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ421-441>443.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......TF
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at www.weather.gov/detroit.

NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion