Douglas, Wyoming Weather Forecast Discussion

862
FXUS65 KCYS 071035
AFDCYS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
435 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather
  across the southern Panhandle this afternoon.
- Warming trend starts Sunday and continues through the week.
- Daily afternoon thunderstorm chances return Tuesday onwards
  with primary threats being wind and large hail.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Under clear skies last night, temperatures plummeted in valleys
across eastern Wyoming and areas of the Nebraska Panhandle
where several locations dipped down into the upper 20s. This
brief shot of fall is short lived due to upper-level ridging
that will build back in across portions of our CWA, resulting in
700MB temps climbing back into the low double digits, above
zero. So for today, highs will nearly be 10 degrees warmer in
many spots across the CWA, topping out in the mid to upper 70s,
to near 80 in a few locations, with lows tonight bottoming out
in the upper 40s to low 50s. Stronger winds primarily west of
the I-25 corridor, along I-80 west of Laramie, will be
relatively gusty through this afternoon into this evening, with
west northwest winds 15-20 MPH, gusting up to 30-35 MPH, with
more of the same on Sunday. On the precipitation front, hi-res
guidances is indicating some storm initiation over the higher
terrain and that is currently on radar with a few very isolated
storms that are pushing southeast of off the Sierra Madre and
Snowy Mountains. This activity is not expected to be anything
widespread, but remain very isolated and near higher terrain.
The warming trend will continue into and through Sunday along with
increased chances of rainfall and storms. An upper-level shortwave
will slide across the CWA providing the needed lift in the
atmosphere along with moisture for storm initiation. These
storms will be more widespread compared to today, with storms
developing across Wyoming in the early afternoon and spreading
east into the Nebraska panhandle by mid/late afternoon.
Instability parameters are not all that impressive, but will be
enough to initiate thunderstorm activity that may contain small
hail along with gusty and erratic winds. The other thing of
note in the short term will be the smoke coming from Canadian
wildfires which will primarily affect western zones of the CWA.
Due to this, there is an air quality alert still in effect
through 1PM Sunday for portions of western and northern Carbon
County. However, most of the CWA may see hazy skies with the
possibility of smoke aloft.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the pattern until
Tuesday. This will keep the region rather dry with the occasional
breezy uptick in winds in the afternoon. An upper level low is
progged to enter and cross in the middle of the of the Western US.
This system looks to stall as it starts to flatten the ridge sending
shortwaves to help develop the daily chances for thunderstorm
development. Wednesday looks to be gusty as the low pressure system
flattens and compresses the pressure gradient. This compressed
gradient is expected to last until at least Friday as the system
pushes east.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 433 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Winds will be light (10 kt or less) to start the TAF period.
Main aviation concern this morning will be the potential fog and
low stratus development at KAIA and KSNY, with some light fog
possible at KBFF. Currently have VCFG in for KAIA and KSNY as
fog may remain just east of the terminals. However, some
visibility reductions are expected. This may not occur at KSNY,
as high clouds continue moving eastward. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms return once again this afternoon. Winds
increase quickly this morning with wind gusts around 20 to 25
kts expected at most terminals.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ104-109-
     111>113.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...AM/WFO-RIW

NWS CYS Office Area Forecast Discussion