Downs Memorial Park, Maryland Weather Forecast Discussion

364
FXUS61 KLWX 241936
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
336 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Ahead of a cold front, daily shower and thunderstorm chances
continue through Thursday night. This frontal system crosses
through by early Friday before stalling to the south and east
of the area this weekend. Some lingering shower chances exist
across southern portions of the forecast area. By early next
week, high pressure builds over eastern Canada while disturbed
weather over the Bahamas lifts northward over the western
Atlantic.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A positively-tilted trough centered over the Ozarks region
continues to draw ample mid/upper moisture up through the
Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. The result has been a
thick mid-level cloud deck that has stunted any notable
convective development. On the radar mosaic, a broad axis of
light to locally moderate rain showers are generally moving off
to the east. Some locally heavy downpours are possible given
current precipitable water values around 1.7 inches. Given this
satellite presentation has persisted much of the day, thunder
chances were lowered to around 15 to 24 percent. Further
reductions are looking likely given little to no instability in
that atmosphere.
Despite the extensive cloud cover, temperatures have warmed well
into the 70s. This is accompanied by rather humid conditions for
mid/late September as dew points have risen into the upper 60s
to low 70s. Overall gradients remain weak with variable winds
around 5 mph or less.
After the initial slug of showers cross the area through this
evening, some lull in the action is possible during the first
half of the overnight period. The combination of light winds
and ample low-level moisture will foster the development of
patchy fog and mist. However, this may scour out as the next
wave of precipitation tracks through from the southwest.
Forecast lows tonight are well into the 60s, locally cooler over
the mountain ridges.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upstream longwave trough is expected to make its eastward
push on Thursday. While the northern extent of the trough
remains progressive, the southern flank may cut off near the
Mid-South region. Increasing moisture ahead of this trough and
accompanying cold front will make for another wet day across the
area. Showers are expected during the morning hours which may
leave behind additional cloud cover to fend off during peak
diurnal heating. As such, while convective chances should be
higher owing to the trough/front combo, remnant cloud cover may
again be an issue. If storms were to materialize, ample vertical
shear is present to foster the development of a few strong to
severe thunderstorms. Consequently, a Marginal risk for severe
weather remains for all locations east of the Alleghenies.
Damaging winds are the most likely threat if storms indeed
materialize. Forecast high temperatures rise into the upper 70s
to low 80s, with 60s to low 70s for the mountains.
The frontal system passes through late Thursday night which will
keep showers around through the overnight period. The cool spot
overnight should be behind the front where widespread upper 50s
are likely along and west of the Blue Ridge.
By Friday morning, the cold front is forecast to be just east of
the Chesapeake Bay. A few lingering morning showers are possible
over southern Maryland. Otherwise, expect more sunshine in the
forecast, particularly later in the day. With the frontal zone
just off to the south, a few afternoon showers cannot be ruled
out south of I-66. High temperatures remain fairly close to
Thursday`s readings. Heading into the night, forecast lows will
be in the low/mid 60s, with mid/upper 50s along and west of
I-81.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Persistent upper level troughing remains over the east coast
throughout the long term period. At the surface, a stationary
front remains off shore along the east coast as surface high
pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. This will yield daily
precipitation chances as multiple waves of low pressure track
along the nearby frontal boundary. Additionally, mostly cloudy
skies can be expected each day. Conditions will dry up on
Tuesday as the front slowly dissipates and tracks farther away.
Temperatures will be in the 70s each day with higher elevations
staying in the 60s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s for
those east of the Blue Ridge and 50s for those along and west.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Light to moderate showers will continue to shift toward the east
over the next several hours. While PROB30 groups remain at the
area terminals, it is looking more bleak given the extensive
cloud cover. Thus, these groups may get removed during the next
TAF updates. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the
mid-evening before some ceiling reductions occur overnight.
Another round of showers are in the forecast overnight with
sub-VFR conditions likely at all terminals. MVFR ceilings likely
persist into Thursday morning as well.
Southerly wind gusts increase to around 10 to 15 knots on
Thursday afternoon ahead of the slow approaching cold front. VFR
conditions are likely to return for the afternoon hours before
another round of showers and possible thunderstorms move in from
the west. Like today, uncertainty is on the higher side given
expected cloud cover. Some restrictions are possible with any
frontal convection. Winds shift to west-northwesterly behind the
front with VFR conditions likely on Friday.
Winds remain light Saturday and Sunday, blowing up to 10 knots in
the afternoon out of the northeast. Winds become light and variable
each night. VFR conditions are expected each day with precipitation
chances leading to possible deterioration in conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
While marine wind gusts are largely topping out around 5 to 10
knots, some uptick is likely this evening into the overnight
period. Southerly channeling effects could bring some sites
close to advisory criteria. Marine Weather Statements or Small
Craft Advisories may be needed as this uptick occurs.
Southerly winds remain near advisory criteria on Thursday, but
the latest guidance keeps gusts just short (around 15 knots or
so). Cold frontal convection may impact the waters Thursday
evening which may warrant a Special Marine Warning or two. Any
more intense convection should wane into Thursday night. Post-
frontal west to northwesterly winds overspread the waters on
Friday with gusts to around 10 knots.
Winds remain out of the northeast both Saturday and Sunday and are
expected to be light, blowing less than 10 knots. No marine hazards
are expected at this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies are forecast to remain slightly elevated through Thursday,
so additional near minor flooding is possible at sensitive
locations such as Annapolis. This is most likely with the
higher daily tide cycle in the afternoon and evening, with the
strongest onshore flow and highest anomalies possible on
Thursday into Friday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/BRO
MARINE...AVS/BRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion