Downs, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

090
FXUS63 KGID 191943
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
243 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a marginal risk of severe storms this afternoon and
  evening. The main threats will be hail up to around the size of
  quarters and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.
- Light patchy fog may develop tonight in areas that received
  rainfall today.
- Temperatures will be on a warming trend after today with highs
  in the 80s areawide on Monday then cooling into the 60s and
  70s on Tuesday behind a cold front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Today and tonight...
An upper trough extends from Canada southward to the central Plains
and Midwest. Upper level lift/shortwaves associated with the upper
trough are moving across portions of Nebraska and Kansas. Showers
and thunderstorms are moving across central Nebraska. This has
resulted in lingering cloud cover and more stability across
locations generally northeast of the Tri-Cities. Mid-level lapse
rates are higher across western portions of the area along with 0 to
6 km bulk wind shear values around 50 knots and modest CAPE. These
conditions have resulted in a marginal threat of severe storms this
afternoon and evening across north central Kansas and portions of
south central Nebraska. Hail up to around the size of quarters and
wind gusts up to around 60 mph are the main threats. Temperatures
today across the area are quite a bit cooler in the north with
values ranging from near 60 around Ord and warmer in the south with
values in the mid to upper 70s in north central Kansas. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s to the lower 60s
with a surface high present across northern Nebraska. Patchy fog
will be possible tonight in areas that received rainfall today with
light northerly winds present.
Saturday through Monday night...
The surface high will move south and east on Saturday with high
temperatures across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas mostly in the low to mid 70s. Low temperatures
Saturday night will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible (15% to 20% chance) Saturday night as
a shortwave moves over the area. Southerly winds are expected on
Sunday with temperatures warming up into the mid 70s to mid 80s. Low
temperatures Sunday night will be in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.
The warming trend will continue into Monday with highs in the upper
70s to mid 80s. Showers and storms may develop (15% to around 20%
chance) across portions of the area Monday afternoon as a shortwave
moves overhead. A cold front will begin to move into the area Monday
night with low temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Rain and
storm chances Monday night will increase to around 35% to 55%.
Tuesday through Thursday...
An upper low/trough will move southeastward over the area on
Tuesday. Cooler air will be moving into the region with northerly
winds. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 60s to mid
70s. There will be up to a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms
on Tuesday as a result of lift associated with the upper low. Low
temperatures Tuesday night will be in the low 50s to low 60s with
northerly winds. The upper low will pass to the east southeast of
the area on Wednesday with a surface high remaining in place across
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be similar to those on Tuesday. Low
temperatures Wednesday night will be in the low to mid 50s with the
surface high in place. Temperatures may warm up a little on Thursday
from the previous day but will remain below 80 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Showers and thunderstorms are expected at KGRI and KEAR during
the early to possibly middle afternoon hours. Winds will be
variable this afternoon and gusty within and near storms.
Northeast winds are expected by 03z with low ceilings and
possibly low visibilities moving in/developing tonight and
continuing into Saturday morning. The low ceilings may linger
over GRI until around or possibly after 18z but will move out of
KEAR around 15z or 16z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion