Dragoon, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

788
FXUS65 KTWC 102100
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances continue each afternoon
and evening through Friday, mainly near and east of Tucson and
Nogales through the New Mexico border. Gusty winds, blowing dust,
and lightning will be the main hazards. Outside of thunderstorms
expect breezy winds each afternoon with high temperatures coming
down a few degrees through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Southerly flow out ahead of west coast troughing has brought
modest moisture into southeastern Arizona (precipitable water
values around 1 inch), combining with ascent associated with the
nearby trough to produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon near and east of Tucson-Nogales. The 18Z Tucson upper
air observation showed dry mid-levels with modestly moist lower-
levels, indicative of an atmosphere conducive to thunderstorm
initiations but with shorter lifespans. With DCAPE in the 1600
J/kg (measured by the 18Z balloon) to 1900 J/kg range, very
isolated near-severe wind gusts are possible with any thunderstorm
this afternoon. Cloud layer wind in the 15-25 knot range will
lead to fairly quick moving cells which along with the relatively
dry atmosphere should preclude a flash flooding threat.
A similar pattern remains over the coming 48 hours as the trough
remains to the west before finally crossing eastward this weekend.
Tucson-Nogales and north through central Pinal looks to be on the
western edge of thunderstorm chances Thursday and Friday
afternoon/evenings, with chances highest (15-30 percent) through
Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee counties. Precipitable water content
doesn`t change drastically from today, with hazards over the
coming days more likely to come from gusty winds, blowing dust,
and lightning rather than flash flooding.
Moisture pushes out of southeastern Arizona with the crossing of
the trough this weekend, with just very slight thunderstorm
chances remaining in the far southeast. This upper air transition
will also bring temperatures down from above normal today to near
or just below normal through the end of the week. Thunderstorm
chances return as early as Monday next week as guidance is in fair
agreement with the return of moist southeasterly flow.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN cumulus with 9k-12k foot bases and isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA
mainly near and east of KTUS-KOLS through 11/03Z. Gusty and
erratic winds to 45 kts possible with any thunderstorm, otherwise
surface winds southwesterly 12-18 kts with gusts to 30 kts through
11/03Z. Winds then become light and terrain driven late before
increasing and becoming southwesterly again 11/18Z and after.
Scattered thunderstorms again near and east of KTUS- KOLS Thursday
afternoon and evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum relative humidities mainly 15-30 percent
through the week, though a bit higher Thursday and Friday. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms mainly east of Tucson through Friday.
Gusty and erratic winds are expected with thunderstorms.
Otherwise, outside of thunderstorms, expect breezy southwesterly
winds each afternoon through Friday with sustained winds of 12-18
mph and gusts of 25-35 mph. High temperatures slightly above normal
today then seasonable thereafter.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion