Dreka, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

826
FXUS64 KSHV 191723
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Showers and storms are expected to dissipate this evening.
- The weekend looks to get off to a dry start with warmer temperatures
   returning.
- Next week looks to be more unsettled, with greater rainfall
   chances and more mild temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Short range guidance continues to struggle with the ongoing line of
rain entering the Ark-La-Tx. But most agree that any rain sticking
around through today will dissipate near or soon after sunset
tonight. Some scattered cloud coverage will continue through the
overnight hours with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Patchy fog
could be in the cards closer to sunrise tomorrow, especially in
the far northern zones due to the recent increase in moisture.
Saturday will bring a brief return to the hot, dry summer we know
and love. A shortwave ridge will bring a southerly wind shift and
allow for highs in the low to mid 90s by the afternoon. The upper-
level low that has been intensifying over the Northern Plains
recently will shift our flow back to a northwest flow pattern on
Sunday, which could set us up for more disturbed weather going
into the long term period.
Long-range models have several upper-level disturbances coming down
the flow in the first half of the work week, which look to bring
scattered rain showers across the Four State Region. One feature
that could be of interest is a closed low that models are suggesting
will be over Montana/Wyoming on Monday night. The GFS has this low
moving SE quickly during the day on Tuesday and centering over
western Missouri by daybreak Wednesday. The Euro has this low
dissipating over central Colorado by Tuesday night. The movement of
this low pressure system could bring impacts to the Ark-La-Tx if the
GFS is to be believed, but it is too far away to feel any sort of
confidence on. However, the CPC`s 6-10 day outlook released
yesterday has us having closer to normal temperatures and higher
than average precip, hopefully staving off drought conditions
through the long term.
57
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A weak frontal boundary will be the source for VCTS conditions
across most terminal sites through the afternoon and early evening
hours. Conditions to improve by 20/05Z with VFR conditions
prevailing thereafter. Southwest winds up to 10 knots this
afternoon to become light and variable overnight and increasing to
near 6 knots on Saturday. /05/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  96  72  94 /  20   0   0  10
MLU  68  96  70  94 /  20   0   0  10
DEQ  65  91  66  89 /  10   0  10  20
TXK  69  95  70  93 /  20   0   0  10
ELD  66  94  66  92 /  20   0   0  10
TYR  68  91  70  90 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  68  93  69  91 /  10   0   0  20
LFK  68  94  69  92 /   0   0   0  40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...05

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion