Dry Fork, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

200
FXUS65 KGJT 201940
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
140 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms are expected each day through
  Monday.
- Localized moderate rainfall, gusty winds and small hail are
  all possible with these showers.
- Drier air returns Tuesday with the next chances for
  precipitation possible next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
General westerly flow within a plume of moisture as well as peak
heating has resulted in scattered showers and storms across the
area. The instability is rather limited especially north of I-70
where clouds have been most of the day. Across the south partly
cloudy skies has allowed more thunderstorm development. Given the
cape is not much these storms should not cause too many impacts
other than localized moderate rainfall. Wind gusts around 30
mph are possible from any of these showers. Activity should
become more isolated after sunset with a focus north of I-70
overnight. Tomorrow the ridge builds over the area, although
the moisture stays in place. Scattered showers and storms are
expected once again mainly in the northern CWA, which is closer
to the forcing from a shortwave tracking over Wyoming. Impacts
look to be minimal and the high terrain will be favored much like
today. The building ridge causes temperatures to rise a few
degrees overall tomorrow, but in general we are right around
normal for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Still a bit of uncertainty as model solutions are different on
Monday than 24 hours ago. A low pressure trough was expected to
deepen over the Desert Southwest, pulling up deep moisture from the
southwest into the region but now it appears like the trough from
the northwest will keep that moisture shunted south of the region as
high pressure holds firm south of the area. This will also allow the
low to get cut off from the main flow and keep it off the SoCal
coast. We are still expecting scattered to more widespread showers
and thunderstorms on Monday, but it may favor the northern and
central areas as opposed to the south as a shortwave trough from the
northwest moves across the northern half of the area and the jet on
the backside drives in some drier air from the northwest by late
Monday afternoon into the evening. So coverage may not be as robust
as before. Best chances of wetting rain appear to be across areas
north of I-70 with high terrain being more favored. This shortwave
trough will pass with high pressure bringing drier air by Tuesday,
although some isolated showers and storms remain possible along the
Divide. Otherwise, conditions overall should be improving. Much of
the rest of the week appears to be on the dry side as high pressure
ridge slides overhead. However, that cut off low off the SoCal coast
could be a player in the weather late in the week as both the GFS
and ECMWF are indicating this low lifting northward and tracking
east through the Great Basin, potentially bringing in some moisture
by late next week. Confidence is low though this far out as models
have a tendency to change in these shoulder seasons. Temperatures
will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal Monday and Tuesday with a warm
up to near normal levels for the remainder of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon, mainly over high terrain. KTEX, KASE and KEGE have
better chance to see impacts with gusty winds and brief light
rain so kept TEMPO groups here, whereas lower valleys have
PROB30 groups for potential -TSRA at times. Most shower activity
should end by sunset with a few isolated showers lingering
overnight. Activity shifts northward by Sunday. Overall, expect
VFR conditions to prevail with MVFR at times due to lower CIGS
in shower activity.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion