Dumont, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

248
FXUS61 KOKX 151825
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
225 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered over New England through tonight
and drifts offshore Tuesday as a weak low pressure system
approaches from the south through Wednesday. The low then moves
east Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold frontal passage on
Friday allows high pressure to build in through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A high amplitude upper ridge remains over the eastern states
through tonight with a cutoff low meandering along the North
Carolina coast. Meanwhile surface high pressure remains over
northern New England and nosed into the region. The high will
keep higher clouds from making much progress northward tonight,
increasing across the southern areas late tonight, and toward
Tuesday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The cutoff low continues to meander along the North Carolina
coast through Tuesday, with the upper ridge gradually weakening.
The surface high also begins to slowly weaken and shift offshore
during Tuesday afternoon. Leaned toward the NBM probabilities
for precipitation moving into the southern region Tuesday
afternoon, however, with most CAMs holding off on precipitation
until Tuesday evening lowered pops through the afternoon and
cutback on northern extent. The upper low continue to meander
through Tuesday night and into Wednesday before opening into a
shortwave late Wednesday into Wednesday night, and becoming
rather flat as the low moves into the upper ridge. Chances of
precipitation will continue Tuesday into Wednesday night,
however, with little upper support and little moisture,
precipitation will be light, with up to a quarter of an inch
possible along the coast, and a few hundredths farther north.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A few shwrs are possible on Thu as the offshore low begins to
meander out to sea. Although moisture is limited, steep lapse
rates blw h7 along with some dpva should aid in sct development.
As the upr low/trof exits Thu eve, pcpn chances will end.
A cold front comes thru on Fri. Moisture is limited so did not
stray from the NBM pops which are dry. There could be an isold
shwr if the fropa is 16-23Z with some instability. Too far out
to be confident on exact timing however. Fri is modeled to be
the warmest day of the week ahead of the front, with most areas
in the low to mid 80s. The MEX has 87 at EWR which is warmer
than the NBM.
Winds veer to the NE Fri ngt and Sat behind the front, cooling the
entire cwa down. Dry for the weekend with cooler temps. Comparing
the NBM to the MEX, the NBM may be to warm. In fact, at this time
range the MEX could be too warm as well. It would not be surprising
to see some of the nrn and ern areas stay in the upr 60s Sat and
Sun, albeit with lots of sunshine especially Sat.
Continued dry on Mon, although return flow develops increasing
humidity and chances for nighttime fog.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds into the area, remaining through the TAF period.
VFR through this evening, but a chance of MVFR/IFR cigs late tonight.
NE winds at around 10kt bcmg ESE this afternoon, then backing to NE
5-10kt tonight. Winds veering E 10-15kt for Tuesday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts around 15kt for KTEB this afternoon.
Extent of lower stratus late tonight is low confidence - prevailing
low end MVFR to high end VFR cigs are possible, mainly at KLGA,
during the Tuesday morning push.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday: VFR. Occasional E gusts around 20kt possible.
Wednesday: Showers and MVFR likely.
Thursday: Chance of MVFR and -shra in the morning, otherwise VFR.
Friday-Saturday: VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt on Friday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
With a long and persistent easterly fetch, and increasing winds
late tonight with the approach of low pressure to the south,
and increasing E/SE swell, ocean seas west of Moriches Inlet
likely build to near 5 feet late tonight, mainly across the
outer waters. A SCA was issued for these waters beginning st
200 AM EDT Tuesday. Tuesday morning with winds increasing
further, and gusts reaching near 25 kt, small craft conditions
are expected to develop on the waters east of Moriches Inlet,
and an advisory begins at 600 AM EDT for those waters. With the
slow movement of the low to the south SCA conditions will
likely remain on the ocean waters into Wednesday, falling below
SCA levels late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. However, for
now the advisory was issued through Tuesday night. The non ocean
waters remain below advisory levels tonight through Wednesday
night.
Winds and seas area expected to remain blw sca lvls Thu into Fri. A
period of sca cond possible behind a cold front late Fri into Sat,
especially on the ocean. Winds and seas then blw sca lvls for the
rest of the weekend with high pres building in.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next Monday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip risk remains for the rest of today with E winds
increasing. There is a high risk for both Tue and Wed as solid ENE
flow develops along the coast.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion