Dunlap, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

667
FXUS65 KCYS 271951
AFDCYS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
151 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An upper-level ridge keeps the region drier today through the
  weekend with temperatures warming back into the 70s and 80s.
- Breezy conditions return to the Nebraska Panhandle on Sunday,
  along with increasing precipitation chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The upper level ridge will start to breakdown and start to push east
tonight. This will allow some moisture to advect into the region as
the upper level low near the four corners region rejoins the flow
and shifts northeast. Sunday, the upper level low will send a
shortwave through the intermountain west creating some rain chances
in the afternoon. Most of the precipitation looks to be tied to the
mountainous regions so the pops were kept over the mountains and
west near Rawlins. Storm motion looks to be to the North so pops
also weren`t extended eastward as well. Despite the shortwave
producing a weak vorticity gradient to enhance lifting the soundings
still showed a pretty stout dry layer at the surface that may
evaporate and precipitation produced from the anticipated high based
clouds. There does look to be a weak 850mb jet depicted by high-res
models with close to 500 joules of DCAPE. This will likely produce
some gusty winds over the Panhandle as well. Wind gusts up to 30 mph
around mid afternoon are possible. However, RH values are expected
to be in the low 30`s as the gusty winds occur so no fire weather
products will be issued.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
No major changes were made to the long term forecast with this
update. The synoptic weather pattern for most of the week will be
characterized by a broad ridge encompassing most of the central and
eastern CONUS, leaving southwest flow aloft over our area. A
disorganized disturbance will slowly move across the area through
Monday, keeping a little bit of unsettled weather in the picture
into the early part of the work week. This system will have a
moisture tap to a last gasp of the monsoon, pushing precipitable
water to over the 90th percentile of climatology for most of the
area. We will have a little bit of forcing from the upper level vort-
max moving through tapping into some marginal instability. As a
result, look for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and early evening hours, mainly concentrated over and near
the SE Wyoming higher terrain.
This disturbance will exit the area by early Tuesday, while another
shortwave trough passes well to our northwest. With good ensemble
agreement on our area remaining on the periphery of the ridge,
expect fairly warm and dry weather to dominate most of the week
ahead. We may see a gradual warming trend peaking Thursday or Friday
with fairly minimal precipitation chances. Southwest winds may be
gusty at times, especially in Carbon county.
Models diverge somewhat as we approach Friday and into the weekend.
There is good agreement that the trough hanging near the Pacific
northwest for most of the week will push inland over the northern
Rockies, but considerable spread in terms of how deep the broad
longwave trough will be, and thus the tracks and timing of any
individual shortwave ejecting over the area. At a minimum, expect
temperatures to drop for Saturday, likely closer to average. The
official forecast includes chances for rain showers and mountain
snow returning Friday PM and continuing into the weekend, but only a
minority of ensemble members are showing widespread substantial
precipitation. Each shortwave may also bring the potential for an
increase in winds (shown by the deterministic GFS), but there is not
clear ensemble support for a notable wind event at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period. Southerly
winds gusting to around 25 knots will develop at most terminals
except KRWL this afternoon. Expect gusts to come down around
sunset. However, we may see periodic gusts overnight in the NE
panhandle, with LLWS possible at times when surface winds are
light. Look for winds to mix down to the surface again mid to
late Sunday morning.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN

NWS CYS Office Area Forecast Discussion