East Flat Rock, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

164
FXUS62 KGSP 061449
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1049 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity ahead of an approaching cold front will result
in development of scattered to numerous showers and storms across
the area this afternoon. A few strong to perhaps severe storms are
possible. Cooler and drier weather returns on Sunday and lingers
through at least the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1040 AM EDT Saturday: Spotty morning showers across the area
have dissipated. However, convection to our west ahead of a cold
front is steadily moving toward the mountains. Latest CAMs still
show this convection moving into the mountains late this morning or
early afternoon, then spreading across the area through the
afternoon into early evening. Mesoanalysis shows some capping
remains as heating has been slowed due to morning clouds. That said,
heating will be sufficient to overcome the cap with moderate CAPE
developing. Bulk shear is generally in the 20 kt range, but
effective shear is in the 30 kt range. DCAPE values will increase to
over 800 J/kg outside of the mountains during the afternoon. All this
should combine to produce the threat of severe storms, possibly
becoming semi-organized give the effective shear values. Damaging
winds will be the main threat but some marginally large hail is also
possible. Highs will be near normal across the mountains and up to 5
degrees above normal elsewhere.
Convection will push east of the forecast area during the evening as
the front crosses through, with drier dewpoints should be building
in overnight. Limited clearing will be in order for the overnight as
the upper-level front appears less pronounced than at the surface.
Low temperatures will drop into the low-to mid-60s all across the
region...or even the 50s in the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 am EDT Saturday: An anomalous long wave trough will make a
brief reappearance early in the new week, before the core of the
polar jet retreats to the northeast Conus/southeast Canada, with
quasi-zonal flow, or perhaps a very broad, low amplitude trough left
behind across much of the East by the end of the period. At the
start of the short term...the leading edge of a frontal boundary is
expected to be well southeast of our forecast area, with cooler/
drier air gradually filtering in from the north. Nevertheless, just
enough moisture/perhaps weak instability is expected to linger to
support isolated showers and perhaps a TS through the daylight hours
Sunday. Sufficient dry/ stable conditions should be in place by
Sunday evening in order to preclude any precip chances through the
remainder of the period. Temps are forecast to be around 5 degrees
below normal Sun/Sun night, and almost 10 degrees below climo
Mon/Mon night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 am EDT Saturday: The upper air pattern over the Conus
will steadily amplify through the extended, with a baggy trough
forecast over the Southeast for much of the period. Farther north,
New England and southeast Canada will sit under the southern
periphery of an upper low for much of the week, with confluent flow
supporting a persistent low level anticyclone and associated
inverted ridge extending southward to the east of the Appalachians.
Resultant E/NE flow will result in relatively cool and dry
conditions continuing across our CWA through the period, with below
normal temperatures...albeit with a gradual warming trend forecast
through the week (from 5-10 degrees below climo Tuesday to 2-3
degrees below by Friday). Still can`t rule out some moisture return
during mid-week in association with weak surface development near
the Carolina Coast (as consistently portrayed by the GFS). However,
the consensus of global deterministic and ensemble guidance leans
toward maintaining a dry forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions in place at this time.
Convection ongoing to our west ahead of a cold front will move into
the mountains late this morning then spread across the area through
the afternoon and early evening. Have PROB30s at all TAF sites
instead of TEMPOs as there some timing discrepancies remain. Winds
will stay S to SW ahead of the front, but will turn NW behind the
front. Guidance has started hinting at MVFR to IFR ceilings early
Sunday morning, toward the end of the period; have started hinting
at such restrictions for tonight.
Outlook: Some showers and associated restrictions may linger behind
a cold front on Sunday; otherwise dry high pressure is expected
into early next week.  Fog and/or low stratus is possible each
morning, especially in the favored mountain valleys.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...MPR/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...MPR/RWH

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion