713 FXUS64 KBRO 161110 AAB AFDBROArea Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 610 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1005 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Unsettled will be the theme throughout the period. After a lackadaisical Tuesday, in which relatively low precipitable water (PW) content will result in paltry rain chances, a more active weather pattern will become established and persist. This will be due to more robust PW values interacting with daytime heating, the east-to-west migration of the daytime seabreeze boundary, and a series of disturbances that will "ridge ride" 500 mb high pressure centered more or less over northwest Mexico.
Temperature-wise, the daily threat for showers and thunderstorms, along with the associated cloud cover, will have a dampening effect, with values more near normal for this time of year.
Finally, with continued slightly elevated seas, a Moderate Risk of rip currents is likely for the beaches along the Lower Texas Coast.
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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Generally VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period at all TAF sites. Light easterly winds are expected for the duration of the period as well. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible during the late morning through the afternoon along the seabreeze.
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.MARINE... Issued at 1005 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Elongated surface high pressure over the entire Gulf of America will also be the dominant feature for the Lower Texas Coast for the period. Generally moderate winds and seas are forecast for the lower Texas coastal waters, with Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory not likely to be needed.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 91 76 91 77 / 30 40 80 50 HARLINGEN 93 72 92 73 / 30 30 70 30 MCALLEN 96 76 95 76 / 10 10 60 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 96 71 96 73 / 10 0 40 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 79 87 80 / 30 60 80 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 75 89 77 / 30 50 80 40
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.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. &&
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SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...64-Katz
NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion