Elba, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

519
FXUS62 KTAE 221428
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1028 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
No substantive updates are needed this morning. The forecast is on
track.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A broad upper level trough over the northern Gulf will weaken through
the afternoon and into tonight while surface high pressure keeps
easterly flow in place across the area. Preciptable waters should
range from 1.3 to 1.8 inches across the area with the highest
deep-layer moisture generally across the eastern portions of the
forecast area across the southeast Big Bend and across some
portions of the Panhandle. The lower range of these PWATs will
generally be across southeast Alabama and into portions of
southwest Georgia.
With the trough over the region and favorable ascent and seabreeze-
convergence across the southeast Florida Big Bend, the greatest rain
chances (around 20-30%) will be east and south of a Tallahassee
Tifton line this afternoon, but some spotty showers can`t be ruled
out across the Panhandle as well along the seabreeze. Activity
will wane by the early evening and sunset across the area with
afternoon highs around the low 90s cooling off into the upper 60s
for Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
As upper level flow becomes westerly ahead of our next system, low-
level flow will veer from the east to southeast and then south by
Thursday. This will bring a slow moistening and warming trend to
the area. While mostly dry conditions are expected, a few isolated
showers and storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon,
especially across our Florida Big Bend and southern-Georgia
counties where weak seabreeze convergence and diffluent flow aloft
will be well-positioned.
For Thursday and Friday a large CONUS trough will settle into the
southeast US and slowly translate through the forecast area. This
trough should bring a weak cold front through the area. For much
of the region, this front will bring the first widespread chance
of rainfall to the forecast area that we`ve seen in around 3
weeks. While rainfall chances appear to remain high, rainfall
amounts on the other hand are not likely to be significant enough
to be drought-busting. Across the low end of possibilities for
rainfall (around 90% chance of exceeding), most areas should get
around 0.25 inches of rain, but for the higher end possibilities
(around 10% chance of exceeding), these amounts are only around
1.5-2.0 inches. While many locations won`t see those 1.5-2.0 inch
totals, even these amounts are not enough to erase weeks of
rainfall deficits. Even the most likely amounts, around 0.5 to
0.75 inches, will likely only put a small dent in the developing
drought across the area.
After the front moves through, drier and slightly cooler conditions
are likely to return to the forecast area for the weekend, but some
uncertainty in the broader upper level pattern does give lower
confidence to the forecast, especially if the upper level trough
begins to cutoff across the deep south like some solutions paint.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Brief MVFR conditions are still possible at VLD through 13z with VFR
later in the morning as the low clouds and patchy fog dissipate.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period
with light easterly winds. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon across the Florida panhandle, big bend, and
adjacent southern Georgia including VLD, but the probabilities
appear too low to include an explicit mention in the TAFs at this
time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1028 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Easterly winds will continue one more day through Tuesday morning
and then begin to weaken and turn southerly late Tuesday, in
advance of our next system later this week. Given easterly flow
regime into Tuesday, a brief moderate easterly surge is possible
tonight off the northern Florida Peninsula into Apalachee Bay.
Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. An increasing chance of
scattered showers and storms is likely late this week. Despite the
approaching front later this week, winds and seas are likely to
remain below cautionary levels through the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Mostly dry conditions will continue through Wednesday across the
area with afternoon relative humidities around 35 to 40%. Easterly
winds will be light and turn southerly through the week as moisture
slowly increases. Isolated showers and some thunderstorms are
possible each afternoon, but most of the rain chance will hold off
until Thursday and Friday as our next system moves through. While
rain chances will be high, and the probabilities for a wetting rain
remain high as well, the chance for more significant rainfall totals
above 1.0" still remain quite low and only around 5 to 10%. While
the rain and cloud cover should lower fire concerns later this week,
fire weather concerns are still likely to remain elevated outside
Thursday and Friday`s frontal system given drought conditions in
place and infrequent nature of the rainfall producing systems.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Mostly dry conditions should prevail through the period with
drought conditions likely to remain in place and potentially get
worse in locations that don`t receive significant rainfall from
our next system on Thursday and Friday. This next system is not
likely to bring flooding concerns, but riverine issues are not
expected. Rainfall totals around 0.5 to 1.0 inches are possible.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  71  93  71 /  20   0  10   0
Panama City   91  72  90  73 /  20   0  10   0
Dothan        93  68  94  69 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        93  69  94  70 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      91  70  93  70 /  20  10  10   0
Cross City    92  70  93  71 /  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  85  73  86  73 /  10   0  10   0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion