Eldorado Afs, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

866
FXUS64 KSJT 221045
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
545 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot temperatures today and Tuesday, with highs at or above 100
  degrees anticipated in some of the Big Country and Concho
  Valley.
- Cold front arrival Tuesday night and early Wednesday will bring
  an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms, and followed
  by cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Expect hot and dry conditions for the next 24 hours across the
area due to an upper level ridge of high pressure and an intense
low level thermal ridge. Also, mostly sunny skies today will make
even feel hotter. Please use heat safety precautions and stay in
and air condition place or vehicle during the hottest time of the
day. It will also be humid east of an Abilene to San Angelo to
Sonora line with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Highs this
afternoon will be in the 90s across much of the area to 100 to
103 across the Big Country and northwest Concho Valley. Also, can
not rule out a few thunderstorms late tonight north of I-20.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Our area will have one more hot day Tuesday, with south-southwest
winds and 850mb thermal ridging ahead of an approaching cold front.
Highs are expected to be in the upper 90s to 101 across the Big
Country and Concho Valley, and in mostly in the mid 90s farther
south. The record highs Tuesday (Sep. 23) are 101 in Abilene, and
103 in San Angelo, with both records set in 2023.
An upper trough will move from Colorado Tuesday morning into Kansas/
Oklahoma Tuesday night. There remain some model differences, but
the overall expectation at this time is for the associated cold
front to move south into the northern Big Country Tuesday evening,
and across the rest of our area Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. This will bring an increased chance of showers
and thunderstorms to our area. Seeing some indications of moisture
pooling along the front with precipitable water values increasing
to between 1.5 and 2 inches. This will bring a possibility for
some locally heavy rainfall.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler with increased cloud cover
in the post-frontal airmass. Highs are expected to be in the lower
to mid 80s. Weak surface high pressure will settle southeast into
the area by Thursday with drier air filtering in as well. Wednesday
night and Thursday night will be relatively pleasant with light
winds, radiational cooling, and overnight lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Could have even cooler lows in some favored low-lying
areas.
Dry but warmer conditions are indicated Friday into the weekend,
as a shortwave upper ridge traverses Texas. Highs during that time
should be mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. South winds will be
a little gusty this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    100  76 100  68 /  10   0  20  60
San Angelo  98  71  97  68 /   0   0  10  50
Junction    96  70  96  69 /   0   0   0  40
Brownwood   98  71  97  68 /   0   0  10  60
Sweetwater 101  74 100  67 /  10  10  20  50
Ozona       95  70  95  69 /   0   0   0  30
Brady       95  71  95  70 /   0   0  10  50
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...21

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion