Elk Rapids, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

857
FXUS63 KAPX 151836
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
236 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions continue
- Fire weather concerns
- Minimal rain chances much of the week
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Pattern synopsis/forecast:
Rather stagnant pattern continues with omega block in place across
the CONUS. This results in a few more days of unseasonably warm
weather and dry conditions. It will take until the end of the
week for additional Pacific energy to break things down and push
the upper ridge eastward. And this is what will eventually
bring the Great Lakes cooler temperatures and better chances of
rain. The only sensible weather concerns the next few days will
focus on patchy fog, primarily closer to Lake Huron with weak
southeasterly boundary layer flow.
Primary Forecast Concerns through Tuesday:
Not much.  A Hudson Bay high will continue to advect dry air into
the Great Lakes on light southeasterly flow. Anemic moisture
profiles with less than 30% RH in the H8-H5 layer and PWAT`s
less than 0.75 inches (50-75% of normal). Still expecting at
least some fog later tonight, most widespread closer to Lake
Huron with weak background moisture advection off of Lake Huron
with the weak southeasterly flow. A few areas in northern lower
west of I-75 may push into the middle 80s on Tuesday with
downsloping. Coastal areas will be cooler with afternoon lake
breeze development. Still some fire weather concerns with
minimum afternoon RH"s in the 30s and continued drying of the
fine fuels, although the lighter wind regime should limit the
potential.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
The quiet weather pattern continues - with a slow trend toward more
unsettled weather later in the period.  Moisture to our west will
try to make a push toward the Great Lakes later in the week with a
breakdown in the upper ridge, only to be temporarily shunted
west again by Canadian high pressure slipping southward into
Ontario.  We will see temperatures cool off by the end of the
week, although still running slightly above normal. It may very
well take until Sunday or early next week for better rain
chances, as the surface high slips east and we finally get a
more moist southerly flow to interact with upstream shortwave
energy.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
VFR through the remainder of the daylight hours. Fog potential
returns tonight with the highest probabilities for LIFR VSBYs at
APN/PLN. Lesser chances at MBL and CIU, but still may deal with
notable VSBYs drops at times overnight. Back to VFR after
sunrise Tuesday. Light winds.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJG

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion