298 FXUS63 KMPX 280518 AFDMPXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1218 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry weather continues this coming week.
- Winds will transition to the south Sunday morning. It will become gusty in west central MN during the afternoon.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...Early morning satellite imagery and surface observations showed clear skies and light winds across the region as a weak cold front was departing to the southeast, and surface high pressure was building in from the west. This cold front passed through dry, with the only noticeable weather being cooler temperatures.
On Sunday the high pressure will drift towards the Great Lakes, setting the stage for southerly winds to develop. This will bring warmer air across the region, which will keep temperatures well above normal with highs in the 80s most of this coming week.
This warm air will be fairly dry, so the most concerning part of the forecast is the fire weather conditions. Southerly winds will be breezy at times next week, but fortunately the fuels have some moisture as we have yet to see a killing freeze across the region.
By the time Friday arrives, there will be a few small chances for showers and thunderstorms. This could signal a transition to a wetter pattern for the following week as an upper level trough digs out west, but there is still uncertainty on exactly where the storm track will be.
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Clear skies through the period. Calm winds overnight become southerly this morning with speeds generally between 5-10 kts. The exception is at AXN, where gusts of 20-25 kts are expected during the day.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind SSE 10-20 kts.
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.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None.
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DISCUSSION...JRB AVIATION...ETA
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion