Ellard, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

694
FXUS64 KMEG 241755
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1255 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Another round of strong to severe storms is forecast for this
  afternoon, mainly along and east of the Mississippi River, ahead
  of an approaching cold front.
- A cold front will bring drier and much cooler air for the end of
  the week, with pleasant conditions expected for the weekend and
  into the beginning of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Cloudy and a much cooler pattern is currently in place across the
Mid-South, with the vast majority of shower and thunderstorm
activity remaining south of the area thus far today. We do have a
couple of thunderstorms moving out of our area currently along the
TN River. Showers to our west have struggled to do much of
anything thus far this morning, with CAMs still struggling with
the overall evolution of things through the remainder of the day.
As the parent low pressure system drifts northeastward through
the Mid-South, do expect for an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity by the afternoon to evening hours. The biggest question
at this point will be if we will be able to destabilize, with
current cloud coverage potentially hindering this ability. If we
are able to destabilize, there is enough upper-level support for a
few storms to become strong to severe with the main concern
remaining strong wind gusts. The other question mark through the
rest of the day will be the flood potential. Luckily, the
majority of the guidance does not show storms training over one
area, so think any flood concerns would be confined to flood-prone
areas or those who received heavy rainfall overnight. A few
showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely linger through the
day on Thursday as the frontal boundary slowly pushes through the
area, but no impacts are expected from this. As such, expect high
temperatures to remain well below-normal today as well as
Thursday/Friday behind the frontal boundary. Highs will likely
remain in the upper 70s to low 80s. Dry conditions are expected to
prevail through the weekend.
Weak, upper-level ridging will begin to develop into the beginning
of the next week as the Mid-South becomes situated between two low
pressure systems. This overall pattern will allow temperatures to
rebound slightly into next week, with high temperatures returning
to the mid to upper 80s. This will also keep mostly dry conditions
through at least the first half of the week. Beyond the middle
of next week, 6-10 day guidance does suggest both above-normal
temperatures and near to below-normal precipitation to persist.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Very complicated and messy set of TAFs. Current radar is really
underperforming with respect to what the 12Z and (previous runs)
of the CAMs were simulating for this time period, which led to the
push back of timing for TSRA onset in the TAFs. Overall trends
look similar with coverage and intensity of storms picking up
within the next few hours as the surface low approaches, but the
timing is very tricky to nail down due to near term model
divergence. Do see a pretty clear signal for LIFR to IFR ceilings
overnight with the post-frontal stratus. Should be pretty slow to
improve back to VFR tomorrow afternoon just given the thickness of
the low cloud deck. Also added some mention of light SHRA behind
the front tomorrow morning and afternoon, but there shouldn`t be
any impacts with the residual showers.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Over the past 48 hours, the vast majority of the area has seen at
least 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with some locally higher amounts.
This has curbed fire weather threats for the time being. While
some dry conditions will begin to return by the beginning of next
week, fire weather concerns should remain limited for the
foreseeable future.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CAD

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion