Elsmere, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

675
FXUS63 KLBF 271122
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable temperatures are expected today, with highs in the
  mid 70s.
- Breezy conditions are expected Sunday through Wednesday, with
  strong winds gusting up to 30 mph.
- Temperatures return to warmer than average on Sunday, lasting
  through the week. Little to no precipitation is expected this
  week. Better chances of precipitation return next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
An upper level low is observed over southern California, with a
subtle ridge over western Nebraska. A cold front continues to track
through the region early this morning, with high pressure building
in behind the front. Behind the front, seasonal conditions are
expected this afternoon, with highs in the mid 70s and mostly clear
skies.
Sunday, the upper level low is expected to join the upper level flow
as a trough. Southerly flow is expected ahead of this trough,
enhancing the amplitude of the ridge. At the surface, a low pressure
system develops along the front range and southerly winds contribute
to warm air advection across the region. This brings warmer than
seasonal highs on Sunday, with highs expected to reach into the 80s.
Cloud cover develops late in the afternoon and evening. Though the
low will track near the region, the general lack of moisture
aloft should prohibit any chances of precipitation Sunday
evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Upper level ridging continues across the region Monday and Tuesday,
keeping highs in the 80s across the region. For reference, late
September to early October is typically when we see highs in the low
70s, so these early week temperatures will be around 10 degrees
warmer than typical. Forecast soundings remain fairly dry, and
indicate potential for strong mixing in the low levels of the
boundary layer. This will lead to some breezy conditions Sunday
through Tuesday night, with southerly wind gusts up to 30 mph.
A shortwave tracks through the flow on Wednesday, tracking a low
through the Dakotas. Depending on the track of the low, conditions
could remain breezy again on Wednesday, but as of now, given the
more northerly track, winds begin to calm a bit on Wednesday.
Chances of precipitation continue to trend down as the low tracks
further north. Ensembles only bring around a 10 percent chance of
precipitation, and even in those runs with precipitation, amounts
are generally less than one tenth of an inch. By the weekend, a
deeper trough is expected in the upper level flow, which does bring
better precipitation chances across the region. In fact, the European
and GEFS ensembles bring around a 30 percent chance for measureable
precipitation Friday evening into Saturday morning. Will continue to
monitor forecast trends, but for now, a fairly dry week is expected,
with perhaps some rain arriving next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. Skies are expected to remain
clear today and tonight. Surface winds are expected to remain light
today, generally under 10 knots. Winds will continually shift today
from a prevailing northerly wind to an easterly and eventually
southerly wind.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion