Esopus, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

665
FXUS61 KALY 081035
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
635 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure becoming locked in across the region will ensure
a prolonged period of dry conditions, spanning at least the next
six days. Temperature trends resemble a roller coaster this
week, starting with below normal values through Tuesday night, a
moderation to near or just above normal Wednesday and Thursday,
and a return to below normal through Friday night before near
normal conditions return for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:
- Patchy frost likely in the Southwest Adirondacks tonight.
Discussion:
A large surface anticyclone continues to expand north and east
from the Midwest/Ohio Valley as broad, upper-level troughing
deamplifies and begins to depart. Strong subsidence in
association with this high will maintain dry conditions for much
of the work week, despite a couple of shortwave disturbances
pulsing through the mean flow aloft. In fact, our next solid
chance for precipitation doesn`t present itself until late
Saturday night into Sunday. That being said, despite there being
general agreement in the long range guidance in the development
and southeast track of a cutoff low from Ontario that will
ultimately bring these rain chances, there still remains a fair
amount of timing uncertainty at this time. Therefore, the slight
chance to chance PoPs forecast by the 01z NBM Saturday night
through Sunday were unchanged.
Temperatures will be rather variable in reference to
climatological normals over the next seven days. The lingering
cool temperatures aloft from the cold front that passed through
the region Saturday will maintain below normal temperatures
today and tonight. Highs will therefore be in the low 60s to low
70s, though isolated pockets of mid 70s are certainly not out of
the realm of possibility given the anticipation for deep mixing
and plenty of unobstructed sunshine. Low temperatures tonight,
given favorable radiational cooling conditions, will drop widely
to the 30s and 40s. Patchy frost can therefore be expected in
the Southwest Adirondacks where a Frost Advisory will go into
affect at 2 AM tonight. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will achieve
closer-to-normal values with mid/upper 60s to upper 70s, though
lows Tuesday will remain below normal at values of upper 30s to
mid 40s. Wednesday night will be a bit more mild in comparison
with primarily 40s to low 50s. Temperatures Thursday will be
similar to those of Wednesday, though a weak cold front looking
to move through the region Thursday night will see temperatures
drop back to below normal levels by Friday. Highs will be in the
mid/upper 60s to low/mid 70s with lows in the 40s. By the
weekend, temperatures will once again moderate back towards
normal with highs Saturday and Sunday in the mid/upper 60s to
mid/upper 70s and lows in the mid/upper 40s to low 50s both
nights.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...Any fog at KGFL this morning will
dissipate by 12z. High pressure building in across the region
will keep dry conditions in place with clear skies and just some
fair weather cumulus clouds around today. VFR conditions will
occur through today and this evening. With similar conditions
expected tonight, expecting occasional fog to develop again
tonight after 06z at KGFL with IFR/MVFR conditions. With less of
a breeze fog may also occur at KPSF although confidence is
lower than at KGFL. Winds will initially be northwest less than
5 kt early this morning, increasing to 5-8 kt by this afternoon.
Winds will become calm tonight.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night to Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ032-033.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gant
DISCUSSION...Gant
AVIATION...JPV

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion