Ester, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

657
FXAK69 PAFG 121024
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
224 AM AKDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Broad troughing continues over the western portion of the state.
Remnants from the previous deformation band will continue to
bring some light snow showers across the Brooks Range, shifting
off to the NW Arctic by way of an upper-level low spinning over
the western portion of the Brooks Range. Southerly flow will
continue over the eastern portion of the state, providing some
occasional shower chances across the Interior. This flow will
also provide for some decent snowfall across the Alaska Range
through Saturday afternoon. Because of this, and with it being the
first "good" snow of the season, a Winter Weather Advisory is in
effect through noon on Saturday for the Denali Borough.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Increasing confidence in snow for Cantwell into higher
  elevations of the Parks Highway area through Saturday morning.
  Snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, especially on the colder and
  grassy surfaces. The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended
  through noon on Saturday.
- Scattered showers will continue across the Interior through the
  weekend as moist, southerly flow is  to continue.
- Cooler temperatures today, persisting into the weekend with
  highs in the 40s and 50s.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Generally drier weather with a mix of sun and clouds along the
  coast through Friday, with a slight chance (20-40%) of showers
  this weekend.
- Below normal temperatures overspread the area today, and
  continue through the weekend with highs in the 40s.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Snow from the Central Brooks Range/Central Interior will move to
  the northwest coast and western Brooks Range through the
  beginning of the weekend.
- Precipitation along the NW coast and Western Brooks Range will
  transition to a rain/snow mix sometime Saturday afternoon with a
  push of warmer temperatures from the SW.
- Snowfall totals of 2 to 5 inches across Arctic Plain and along
  the coast, and 4 to 8 inches in the western Brooks Range through
  Friday.
- Low chances (10-30%) for a mix of rain and snow persist into the
  weekend across the Central Brooks Range/North Slope, but no
  additional accumulations are expected.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Overall troughing continues for the majority of the state. A 530
decameter low is continuing to rotate around the northwest portion
of the state. This will continue to provide chances for snow
showers along the NW Arctic Coast as moisture from the dissipated
deformation zone wraps around the low. Some of this moisture is
currently being wrapped around and into portions of the Lisburne
Peninsula and northern Kotzebue Sound, providing some light snow
showers as well. This will persist through Saturday afternoon,
transitioning to a rain/snow mix with the aid of a weak W-E
oriented ridge that will begin building over the Seward
Peninsula.
Looking farther east, generally moist, southerly flow dominates
the eastern half of the state. This will continue to provide the
Interior with shower chances through the end of the weekend and
snow chances for the Alaska Range through Saturday afternoon. A
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Denali Borough
with snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible through Saturday
afternoon. Some of the snow may not stick at first, but
eventually cooler temperatures will be brought down from the low
over the NW, aiding in the accumulation potential. Temperatures
will begin to warm back up to the mid to upper 50s, across the
Interior, by Monday. This is due to some ridging moving north,
out of the gulf, ahead of a closed, upper-level 535 decameter
trough that will have formed over the weekend.
The 535 decameter low that is expected to form in the gulf will
become the next main driver of the upper-level pattern as the
beginning of the week begins. Global models are showing various
solutions of how this low will transpire and will continued to be
monitored closely over the next several days.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Cooler temperatures continue today with highs in the upper 40s in
the Central/Western Interior and in the upper 50s for the Eastern
Interior. Cloudy conditions are expected to persist with moist
upper-level patterns from the south. This will also continue to
provide some slight chances for showers through the end of the
weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall amounts remain around a few tenths of an inch
or less through the late week and weekend. There are no concerns
for flooding at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Broad, disorganized troughing exists through the western half of the
state Monday. Ridging builds into the Eastern Interior from Canada.
A low in the Gulf of Alaska begins to move north Tuesday from the
bottom of the trough as a stronger low begins setting up in the
Bering Sea. The Gulf low will bring additional showers through the
Alaska Range and Western Interior as it starts rotating north around
the low in the Bering. The ridge will keep warmer and drier
conditions in the Eastern Interior through much of next week, but
confidence is very shaky on the details. Overall rather low impact,
benign, weather expected through the extended forecast period.
- Stokes
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ847-848.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
&&
$$
Twombly
Extended - Stokes

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion