Estillfork, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

863
FXUS64 KHUN 121510
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1010 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
With yesterdays rainfall moistening the surface, areas of patchy
fog were able to develop in our valleys and along water ways early
this morning. Current satellite shows a few areas of stubborn fog
in NE AL holding out in our valleys. Under mostly sunny skies
temperatures have warmed from the mid 60s to the low to mid 70s,
aiding in dissipating our fog.
Through the day today the synoptic pattern aloft will transitions.
Troughing in the eastern CONUS will push off the Atlantic coast
leaving us solidly in northerly flow by the end of the day. This
northerly flow will push our current 60+ degree dew points south
towards the Gulf. By tonight, continental drier dew points in the
50s will enter the area ushering us into the day, but hot fall
airmass that will settle in the TN Valley through the next week.
This dry airmass will promote clear skies and calm winds which
will be seen today with highs in the 80s and 90s and lows in the
50s and 60s. Should temps cool down to their dew points, areas of
patchy fog look possible again tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
By Saturday high pressure at the surface and aloft will begin to
nudge into the TN Valley. This will jump start our long stretch of
hot and dry weather extending from the short term forecast through
the long term. Under high pressure, subsidence will promote mostly
clear skies and low rain chances. Temps will subsequently enter a
warming trend through the weekend warming from the high 80/ low
90s on Saturday to low to mid 90s by Monday. These temps are about
5-7 degrees above normal for mid September in the TN Valley.
Thus, despite being well versed in heat, next week will require
some slight adjustments back to summer heat safety for those
participating in outdoor activities.
The silver lining of the forecast is that we will remain in
northerly flow through this period on the eastern edge of high
pressure. This will work to keep higher dew points confined to
the Gulf coast leaving us with much lower afternoon humidity and
negating any heat advisory concerns as heat indices will mirror
the actual temperatures. So while abnormally hot for mid
September, will retain some semblance of fall with RH values in
the 30-50% range each afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 946 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
A mean troughing pattern along the eastern seaboard should
continue was we go into the new week. Our location well to the
SE of a frontal boundary over the Great Plains will help keep a
dry and warm trend going through the middle of next week. Upper
ridging positioned just west of the coastal trough should also
maintain its location. Thus daily highs for the Mon-Thu time
frame should range from the mid/upper 80s in the higher elevations
and more eastern locations, with low/mid 90s expected for the
lower elevations, especially west of I-65. Low temperatures each
night should average in the low/mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with mostly
clear skies and light/var winds prevailing. There is a low chance
fog could impact the KMSL terminal this morning, but confidence
was too low to include in TAFs at this time.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...25

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion