Estrella, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

889
FXUS65 KPUB 072032
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
232 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms are likely again today, mainly over our
  eastern plains.
- Less coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected for
  tomorrow, with mainly isolated high based convection likely
  over portions of the high country and the plains.
- Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
  mountains and the eastern plains throughout the forecast
  period with the main concern being that weak storms will
  develop over the west and intensify closer to the Kansas
  border each day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Currently..
As of 1 PM, this mornings showery activity is still progressing slowly
across northern Kiowa County, where dewpoints are in the low to mid 60s.
Southerly flow and cu can be seen across our eastern plains on area
observations and satellite imagery, with some cu beginning to form up over
the high country and the Pikes Peak region as well. A few showers can also
be seen on radar over the southern Sangres, with just one or two lightning
strikes out of that activity. Temperatures are in the 70s and 80s. Winds are
mainly terrain driven over the high country, but are southerly and gusting
to 20 mph or so over our eastern plains.
Rest of Today and Tonight..
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the rest of
this afternoon and this evening. SPC mesoanalysis has nearly 3000 J/Kg
analyzed over our eastern plains later this afternoon, with around 30 to
35kt of bulk shear. CAMs suggest that there will also be some CIN through
the beginning of the afternoon, but that isolated to widely scattered
storms will be able to initiate somewhere around/along a line from El Paso
County into eastern Pueblo and Huerfano County between 2 to 3PM. Models
bring these storms east-southeast across our plains and into a more
favorable environment for possible severe development into the late
afternoon and evening hours. At this time, most storms look to remain
marginally sub severe and sort of congealed through the evening, with
gusts to 55mph, small hail, and heavy rain the main risks. Given the
environment they are moving into though, a couple of stronger to severe
storms may be possible, especially over Bent, Prowers, and Baca counties
later this afternoon. Models keep convection on our eastern plains through
around midnight or so at the latest, with near normal overnight lows
expected across the area.
Tomorrow..
Models continue to build the ridge on Monday, which will continue to warm
us up and dry us out. Temperatures look to return to widespread 90s for the
Lower Arkansas River Valley, with upper 80s elsewhere on the plains, and
70s for our mountain valleys. With drier air moving in, decreased coverage
and intensity of storms is likely over the high country, though a few high
based cells still cannot be ruled out, especially over the eastern mountains
and the San Luis Valley. For the plains, models suggest that the lee trough
will be out near or just across the Kansas border tomorrow, keeping more
intense convection south and east of Colorado. That said, well likely still
see just enough mid-level moisture for some virga and isolated high based
showers and thunderstorms tomorrow over our plains as well, especially near
the mountains. Gusty outflow winds will be the main risk, and chances for
meaningful rainfall will be low.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 128 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Monday Night and Tuesday:
The upper level ridge builds overhead with height rises being
resolved on the 500hPa charts, but embedded in the flow are weak
waves, meaning that isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected over the mountains, mountain valleys,
and over the southern I-25 corridor. Less than 500 J/kg of CAPE
are expected over the western  of the region, with some higher
instability values located over the far eastern plains.
However, the wave will primarily spark thunderstorms over the
western  of the CWA and not quite reach the better atmosphere
for stronger storms. So overall, the main risk for storms will
be lightning and gusty outflow winds during the evening on
Monday. Tuesday will have a little more to work with as a closed
low begins to propagate southeast increasing the moisture
transportation from the Pacific and a stronger wave aloft passes
over Colorado. There are two main outcomes that are being
resolved  one being scattered to likely convection developing
over the mountains, mountain valleys and adjacent plains then
increasing in strength as it hits more unstable air over the far
eastern plains and the other being just a singular strong to
severe thunderstorm that develops north of our CWA and
intensifies once it hits the unstable air. So overall, the main
thunderstorm risk is 1-1.5 hail and 60-70 MPH wind gusts later
in the evening over the far eastern plains on Tuesday night.
Wednesday through Saturday:
As the low-pressure center continues its journey SE, the center
will stall over the Oregon, California, and Nevada state
boundary area. This is actually a bit of shift from last nights
forecast package which had the closed low propagating even
further to the SE towards to four corners region. With tonight
information the convection seems to be limited as the main plume
of moisture is directed further to the west than previously
forecast, so therefore itll look fairly similar to Tuesday
forecast of weak storms forming over the western half of the
then reaching the far eastern plains where they would intensify
with perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm, max with 1 hail
and 60 MPH, but more likely just gusty winds and small hail
stones. This forecast remains consistent with the Thursday
forecast, as well. On Friday, the closed low that has been
stalled over the western US starts to push to the northeast
getting caught up in the upper level flow. As it propagates to
the northeast the main trough axis passes overhead which is
expected to be the strongest wave of the week sparking
widespread convection on both Friday and Saturday. Early
guidance states that the MUCAPE values are around 500-800 J/kg,
so that indicates non-severe thunderstorms - the shear values
are relatively low too. At this pint in time critical fire
weather conditions are not expected, however minimum RH values
are around 20% for the region, which I assume the trends will
lower that a little bit more. No big cause of concern at this
point in time. High temperatures will remain fairly steady state
throughout the long term forecast period with highs in the
upper 70s to upper 80s over the plains and the 60s to 70s over
the mountain valleys.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB,
and KALS for the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms will
be possible near and just east of KCOS today, though chances of
storms moving over station are low at this time, generally less
than 30%. Higher chances of gusty and variable thunderstorm
outflows impacting either KCOS or KPUB will be possible today,
and may need to be added to one or both TAFs at a later time.
Other than thunderstorm chances, VFR conditions are expected,
with light diurnally driven winds, and few to scattered mid and
upper-level cloud decks.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion