Everett, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

869
FXUS66 KSEW 090952
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
249 AM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low south of the area will slowly move
eastward today and Wednesday, weakening as it does so. This system
will continue to push moisture into the area allowing for afternoon
and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over the
Cascades and keeping temperatures near seasonal averages. A
splitting system will try to move into the area this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Latest satellite imagery
showing low clouds in place over the north coast of the Olympic
Peninsula, along the Pacific coast and Cascade valleys while mid to
high clouds have moved into the southeastern third of the CWA from
convection further south. Some showers have made their way into the
southern portions of the Cascades, but have not had much success
holding together once they leave the higher terrain. Latest radar
shows these echoes are the only game in town for now.
That will not remain the case as the day progresses. Zooming out on
satellite, the upper level low funneling moisture into the area can
be seen off the northern CA coast and models remain consistent in
very slowly bringing it eastward throughout most of the short term.
This will result in a slight chance for afternoon evening showers
for the eastern half of the CWA today and Wednesday. As the upper
low finally shifts into eastern OR by Thursday AM, this will limit
the precip it is responsible for to the Cascades, however showers
from the next approaching system may by then already be near or just
along the coast. While isolated thunderstorms will be possible today
and Wednesday, they will most likely be confined to the higher
terrain of the Cascades, where instability will be greatest. There
is a very small chance for isolated thunderstorms along the crest
Thursday afternoon and evening...but both the area where they could
occur and the window they have to pop up are pretty limited.
Daytime highs today and Wednesday are not expected to change very
much, with the interior lowlands generally in the lower to mid
70s...right around seasonable norms for this time of year. Highs
Thursday may even dip slightly below those norms, residing in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
18
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Models remain with out
consensus with regards to next incoming system. While most solutions
keep conditions dry Friday and even into Saturday morning, variances
emerge by Saturday evening where a few ensemble members prove to be
a little agressive in introducing PoPs. Additional members leaning
to an overnight Saturday solution but the slim majority seem to be
converging around Sunday morning, however even then differences of
opinion on the track of the incoming low will result in a wide array
of expected precip amounts. Thus, while PoPs do re-enter the
forecast Saturday through the remainder of the long term, mustering
anything more than a 50 pct chance could be a bit of a stretch. As
such, current NBM solution in the forecast handles the situation as
well as could be expected until solutions can converge a little more
convincingly. The active weather will keep temperatures seasonable,
with interior lowlands seeing highs in the lower 70s and overnight
lows in the mid to upper 50s.
18
&&
.AVIATION...Weak low pressure over the region with southerly flow
aloft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are most likely
over the Cascades where instability is the greatest. Low level
stratus clouds will cover the lowlands this morning then burn back
toward the coast this afternoon. Low stratus clouds will push inland
again overnight. 33
KSEA...Low stratus and MVFR conditions are possible this morning for
a few hours with VFR conditions returning this afternoon. Surface
winds will remain northerly this morning then turn more westerly
this afternoon. MVFR to IFR conditions will likely return overnight
into Wednesday morning. 33
&&
.MARINE...Weak low pressure offshore will shift inland on
Wednesday with a stronger onshore push down the strait Thursday
night - Small Craft Advisory winds are possible. High pressure will
develop offshore on Friday. A weak front will dissipate over the
Coastal Waters this weekend. 33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Thunderstorm chances will continue across the
Cascades in the late afternoon or evening hours through Wednesday
as an upper level low slowly moves over the Pacific Northwest.
The day with the highest probability for storm development will
be Tuesday but even on Tuesday it is less than 25 percent. Most
likely area in the Cascades will be the North Cascades. Primary
threats from any thunderstorms will be gusty outflow winds, brief
heavy downpours, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Outside of thunderstorm activity, increased moisture, cloud cover,
and seasonal temperatures will help to suppress fire weather
impacts into the first part of next week. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$

NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion