Fackler, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

410
FXUS64 KHUN 161002
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
502 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Other than some very patchy river valley BR and FG, a clear to
partly cloudy sky will begin the day. The main update from the
previous forecast package Monday evening was to add a 15% chance
of TSRA this afternoon into early this evening after coordination
with surrounding WFOs. A shortwave/vorticity spoke will rotate
southwest around the upper level low enhancing mid level lapse
rates and provide lift necessary to generate a few SHRA and TSRA.
The greatest instability will develop over TN this afternoon, with
activity shifting southwest into north AL and perhaps linger into
the evening hours. Various CAMs have suggested this trend, and the
NAM is particularly bullish with areal coverage. So further
assessment this morning may require additional updates.
Previous Discussion...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
While our CWA currently remains dry, showers and storms can be
seen on area radars both to the east and the west supported by the
passage of a weak shortwave. Through the night, the shortwave will
continue to travel along the base of an upper level trough
situated off the Mid Atlantic coast. This coupled with slightly
higher PWATS from NNE flow aloft will support at least a low
chance (10-15%) of rain through tonight and into tomorrow.
Anything that does develop will likely be isolated in nature with
most of the area remaining clear and dry.
Conditions will be very similar tomorrow as we remain in a
blocking pattern between the low to our east and ridging to our
west. Ridging will support mostly sunny and hot conditions with
temps in the high 80s and low 90s. Continued NNE flow will again
support a very low chance for a stray shower through the afternoon
though most areas will remain dry.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 856 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
The blocking pattern will continue through the short term
amounting to dry and hot days through the end of the week. Ridging
will gradually nudge east into the TN Valley and keep temps in the
high 80s and low 90s. Fortunately, temps have continued to trend a
few degrees cooler through the end of the week than previously
forecasted. With the ridge now dominating the TN Valley,
subsidence from surface high pressure will largely suppress rain
chances through the end of the week keeping conditions high and
dry!
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 856 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Our pattern looks to change slightly through the long term with
the blocking pattern finally being disrupted. By the start of the
weekend troughing will have significantly elongated over the
Atlantic allowing ridging to cover most of the eastern CONUS.
Without any resistance, high pressure ridging looks to gradually
be pushed into the Atlantic as a deepening trough builds in the
plains and pushes east through the start of the new work week.
Locally this will result in a slow increase in Pops as the
attached surface cold front looks to brush the TN Valley. Models
currently struggle to take the front all the way through thus Pops
remain at or below 30% from Saturday through Tuesday. Coverage of
showers and storms will have an impact on our temperatures as
well leading to a little bit more uncertainty in seeing any
significant break from the summer like conditions. We will
continue to monitor this trend as it draws closer.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR flight weather conditions are forecast during the
period. Scattered to broken mid level clouds ~100-120agl will move
southwest from middle and east TN into north AL this morning.
Then, a low chance (15%) for SHRA or TSRA exists after 18Z as an
upper level disturbances drops southwest around an upper level low
in NC and VA. The probability remains too low to include at either
KMSL or KHSV TAFs at this time.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion