Fairbank, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

765
FXUS65 KTWC 090926
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
225 AM MST Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Modest drying will allow a reduction in shower and
thunderstorm activity this week. Still just enough moisture for
isolated showers and thunderstorms each day, generally in the higher
terrain and to the south and east of Tucson. Expect some breezes
Wednesday and Thursday. Slightly above normal temperatures through
Wednesday then seasonable temperatures thereafter.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Clear skies across southeast Arizona with ridging
centered to our south across Sonora. While the mid and upper levels
have dried out considerably, there is still lower level moisture
hanging around and that is reflected in the PWATs that are around 1
inch. Generally dry conditions today, though some cloud build-ups
will be capable of producing very isolated showers and
thunderstorms. This will be similar to what we saw yesterday with
any shower activity short-lived and small in areal size. Certainly
the overall theme of today will be dry conditions with PoPs only
around 10 percent mainly in the higher terrain and for locales south
and east of Tucson. High temperatures will be about 5 degrees above
normal.
During the Wednesday through Friday period, our forecast area will
be under southerly to southwesterly flow between upper level ridging
across Texas and longwave troughing moving into the west coast and
Great Basin. This setup will help transport a ribbon of moisture
northward into SE Arizona, focused on Graham/Greenlee/Cochise
Counties. The combination of this additional moisture (PWAT`s 1 to
1.2 inches) and some weak lifting on the southeast periphery of the
mid/upper level trough will help support a few more showers and
thunderstorms (PoPs 10-30 pct) with Tucson being on the western edge
of this activity. Meanwhile, the influence of the trough will result
in some breezy southwesterly afternoon winds on Wednesday and
Thursday with gusts up to around 25-35 mph. Temperatures 3 to 5
degrees above normal Wednesday will drop back down to seasonable
levels Thursday and Friday.
Dry conditions are expected to prevail this weekend as the flow will
become westerly enough to shunt the bulk of the moisture just to our
south and east. However, this will be short lived as the flow
becomes a bit more southerly again next week, which would bring
moisture back in with thunderstorm chances returning again next
week. This is the ebb and flow of the moisture we typically expect
to see as the monsoon wanes in September but often takes time before
a true autumnal pattern sets in.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 10/12Z. Very isolated showers and
thunderstorms (-SHRA/-TSRA) today between 09/19Z thru 10/02Z with
less than 10% probabilities that this activity would impact the
terminals. With any storms expect variable and gusty winds up to
around 35 knots. Otherwise, SFC winds should remain fairly light
less than 10-12 knots, with WLY/SWLY conditions prevailing from
09/20Z thru 10/03Z and SE/ELY winds at other times. Sfc winds
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum relative humidities 15 to 30 percent much
of this week. Today will be the driest of the next few days with
slight (~10 pct) chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly south
and east of Tucson. Isolated showers and thunderstorms (10-30 pct)
are then expected Wednesday through Friday, mainly from the Tucson
area eastward. Expect gusty and erratic winds in or near any
thunderstorms. Otherwise, surface winds will be mostly light today,
with breezy to gusty winds Wednesday through Thursday, bringing
gusts to around 25-35 mph. High temperatures slightly above normal
through Wednesday then seasonable thereafter.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion