Farler, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

973
FXUS63 KJKL 170545 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
145 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry weather will persist through the weekend.
- Temperatures will continue to be above normal through this
  weekend and into next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 1204 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
Late evening obs are blended into the forecast without
substantive changes.
UPDATE Issued at 930 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
Clouds are holding on locally in the circulation around the low
on the Mid-Atlantic coast, and adjustments were made for this
evening. Have also adjusted for greater mid level sky cover on
Wednesday in southeast KY based on latest model runs.
UPDATE Issued at 504 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
Showers/thunderstorms have dwindled quickly in KY and shifted
mainly into TN. Have reduced the POP a bit more quickly for this
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
A large cut-off mid-level low over with surface low near the
southeastern Virginia coastline will move northeast and weaken with
time through the short-term period. Mid-level heights will begin to
rise tonight and gradually continue as upper ridging moves over the
area from the west.
Best chance of precipitation will be this afternoon until around or
shortly after sunset to the south of the KY Highway 80 corridor, and
more favorably, south into northeastern Tennessee. Activity should
be mostly just showers, but an isolated thunderstorm or two is
possible along the Tennessee border if a warm layer between about 10
kft and 15 kft can be overcome.
Otherwise, a drier and more stable air mass moves over the area
within northerly mid-level flow for tonight through Wednesday night.
This will allow for highs to remain near to above normal in the 80s
for Wednesday, while lows will continue to be near normal in the 50s
to lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
BLUF: warm and dry conditions expected to persist into early next
week.
Ridging aloft continues to build eastward through the end of the
work week, keeping conditions relatively benign. Models remain in
good agreement that ridging continues over the area through
Saturday, as a dominant high sweeps eastward across southern Canada.
A deepening low downstream of the high will enhance flow along the
eastern periphery of the high, sending a colder air mass surging
through the northeast. The primary source of uncertainty for the
extended forecast period revolves around whether or not that cold
front makes it this far south before a warm front tied to a stalled
shortwave in the northern Plains lifts through the greater
Appalachians.
Global ensemble guidance continues to push back increases in PoPs to
later and later, which has been happening with each model run over
the last three days. NBM PoPs are in the 10-15% range for Sunday,
Monday, and Tuesday afternoons. No adjustments made to these PoPs
because run-to-run consistency in timing is poor, and these low-end
PoPs reflect the variability and wishy-washy nature of recent
guidance in the day 5 and beyond timeframe.
Temps under the building ridge will continue warming through the end
of the week, reaching the low 90s on Friday and Saturday (the two
warmest days of the week) across eastern Kentucky. This is 10-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. NBM temperature spreads
are very small (3-4 degrees at most) indicating high confidence in
these temperatures occurring. Temperatures will, as always, be
5-10 degrees cooler near the ridgetops. Overnight lows in the 50s
and 60s into the weekend, and clear skies would provide a boost to
radiational cooling that would keep nighttime temperatures on the
lower end of that range.
Ensemble guidance begins to deviate on temperatures after Monday
and Tuesday, but overall guidance suggests that even if there is
a cooldown early next week, that temperatures will still be above
average for this time of year. Climate Prediction Center
highlights roughly 60% chances of above normal temperatures in
their 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
Aside from localized IFR or worse conditions in valley early this
morning, VFR conditions can be expected during the period. The
fog could grow enough in breadth to affect KSME and KLOZ for a
brief time. Meanwhile, winds will be light and variable through
the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion