592 FXUS63 KDLH 281108 AFDDLHArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 608 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry again today with near-critical fire weather conditions due to low relative humidity.
- May need to watch for an abrupt increase in northeast winds Monday afternoon.
- High pressure continues with only a small chance of precipitation returning this weekend.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Get ready for a stretch of beautiful early-fall weather across the Northland as a large area of high pressure settles in for the entire week. Were looking at an extended period of dry and sunny conditions with temperatures gradually warming to levels that are above normal for this time of year, a pattern that should hold steady right into the beginning of October. The main exception to this quiet weather will be a push of cooler air off Lake Superior on Monday afternoon and evening, which will bring a quick cooldown and some gusty northeast winds, especially for areas near the Twin Ports. With the steady drying trend all week, fire weather conditions may become a concern. While there is a slight chance some moisture could move into the region on Thursday, confidence in any rainfall is low. Looking ahead to next weekend, while some forecast models hint at a pattern change, this type of stable and pleasant weather often sticks around longer than expected.
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.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period under high pressure. A weak disturbance aloft moving through the Borderlands this morning will lead to a brief period of LLWS at KINL. Southwest to south winds become gusty this afternoon for the NE MN terminals.
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.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
For mariners along the North Shore, expect breezy southwest winds to develop this afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots. However, be prepared for an abrupt and significant reversal of conditions on Monday afternoon. A developing pressure gradient will cause winds to rapidly switch to the northeast, with gusts of 25 to 30 knots spreading down the North Shore and across the head of the lake. This sudden shift will generate hazardous, choppy seas and bring a surge of much colder air to the Duluth- Superior area. Conditions are expected to deteriorate very quickly, so mariners are urged to take all necessary precautions to avoid being caught off guard by this rapid change.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
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.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>143.
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DISCUSSION...Wolfe AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Wolfe
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion