Fields, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

001
FXUS65 KBOI 060228
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
828 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms were decreasing in
eastern OR and far southwestern ID this evening. One thunderstorm
this afternoon produced heavy rain in southern Malheur County
but most storms had only light amounts of rain. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will increase Saturday as a Pacific
trough swings inland, then decrease from south to north
Saturday night as the trough moves past. Sunday looks drier in
Oregon but showers and thunderstorms should redevelop in the
mountains on the Idaho side, on the western fringe of monsoon
moisture. HRRR smoke model shows near-surface smoke decreasing
significantly in our CWA Saturday, from southwest to northeast.
The Treasure Valley should improve nicely by noon Saturday.
However, the model also shows another weaker surge getting
into southern Idaho from the southwest Sunday morning.
The Red Flag Warning for lightning and gusty thunderstorm
outflow winds in southeast Oregon will be allowed to expire
on schedule at 9 PM PDT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR and local MVFR with smoke layers, mainly over
higher elevations (KBKE to KMYL) and KONO. Mountains obscured
in smoke. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in
eastern OR and ID/NV border continuing through evening, capable
of gusty outflows 30-40 kt. Surface winds: variable or NW 5-10
kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: variable 5-15kt.
KBOI...VFR with minor visibility reduction and mountain
obscuration due to smoke. Brief 15-25 mph gusts from distant
storms possible this evening (10% chance). Surface winds: NW
5-10kt through the evening, becoming SE less than 10 kt
overnight.
Sunday Outlook...Scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon. Heavy downpours and gusty outflow winds up to 45kt
possible. Drier conditions on Sunday in eastern OR with
lingering showers and storms over ID mountains and Magic Valley.
Breezy southwest winds Sunday afternoon, especially in eastern
OR and southwest ID highlands.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...Showers and storms
have already begun to develop in SE Oregon and along the ID/NV
border this afternoon. Coverage is expected to increase to
scattered by this evening, and the possibility for abundant
lightning with gusty outflows has prompted the issuance of a Red
Flag Warning. Precipitable water content is about at the 75th
percentile, so storms could produce moderate rainfall rates.
Outflow gusts up to 50 mph are possible around storms, and may
travel far away from storms resulting in brief gusty winds even
for areas that don`t see lightning or precipitation. The trough
providing the dynamics and moisture will swing through
tomorrow, supporting another day of scattered storms Saturday
afternoon and evening, with largely the same storm
characteristics as today, but shifted up into parts of SW Idaho
and E Oregon. As the trough exits Saturday night, it will help
to mix out surface smoke that is expected to persist from now
through Saturday. It will also bring breezier conditions to SE
Oregon and the ID/NV border as forcing increases behind the
wave, potentially leading to another fire weather concern with
conditions still warm and dry.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...The primary low in the
short term will steadily move inland Monday, centered over the
Oregon coast. After which, it will stall over the PacNW coast
Tuesday evening, moving over our area by Thursday evening. The
overall weather change will be lowering temperatures to 10
degrees below normal by Wednesday thanks to the colder airmass
around the low pressure system. However, it will also bring more
moist southwesterly flow, leading to 30% precipitation chances
Tuesday through Thursday. The storm mode will be mostly
convective, with a focus on storm potential in the late
afternoons. Minimum relative humidities will come up in the
middle of next week with the moisture and lower temps.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening ORZ670>672.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/Boise
Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.x.com/NWSBoise
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JY
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion