Florida A And M University, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

926
FXUS62 KTAE 090524
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
124 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
No updates needed.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A cold/stationary front will remain positioned to our south on
Tuesday. A general NW-SE moisture gradient will again be in place,
helped in part by the front`s positioning and persistent
northeasterly flow. Model guidance indicates a fairly expansive
cloud deck blanketing much of the eastern and southern portions of
the region which will likely cap tomorrow`s high temperatures to
below average values. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will be in
the low 80s in our far eastern areas and in the mid-upper 80s in our
far western areas. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 60s
for our northern counties and low 70s for our southern/coastal
counties.
With this moisture gradient, the highest chances of rain appear to
again be in the southern and eastern portions of the region.
Interestingly, some model solutions are indicating a weak surface
low swinging NE from the Gulf into some of our southeastern counties
which would result in more shower and thunderstorm activity. PoPs
were slightly increased to try and capture this, however there is
still considerable uncertainty in this due to disagreeing model
depictions of this feature.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Mid-level troughing persists aloft over the next week while
surface high pressure builds to the lee of the Appalachians.
This will lead to a noticeably drier air mass filtering into
the region from North to South on Thursday. Prior to that, a
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday to
the southeast of a rough line from Valdosta to Panama City,
with the highest PoPs in the Southeast FL Big Bend. Highs in
the 80s on Wednesday rise to the upper 80s to lower 90s on
Thursday thru the weekend, as ridging aloft shunts low-level
moisture and the more extensive stratus/stratocumulus to the
southeast of the region. The drier air and weakening pressure
gradient should allow low temperatures to fall off perhaps
several degrees below guidance starting Thursday morning into
next weekend, with some of the more sheltered locals maybe
flirting with the 50s. Looking ahead, the next chance of any
meaningful rainfall is not until at least the middle of next
week as easterly flow gradually moistens the column with a
stalled frontal boundary in the Gulf.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A few hours of MVFR ceilings may be possible in the morning, but
confidence is too low to include in the taf for now. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Persistent northeast flow over the next several days with high
pressure situated northeast of the waters and a stalled frontal
boundary/low pressure to the south over the Gulf. The pressure
gradient between these features will tighten at times, leading
to winds around 20 knots and seas ranging from 3 to 6 feet thru
at least Thursday. Another Small Craft Advisory is in effect into
Tuesday afternoon, and yet another advisory will likely be needed
from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Friday and Saturday, elevated
winds and seas are expected to persist, with a 40% chance of
reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Some pockets of marginally high dispersions are possible Monday
afternoon. Transport winds are generally elevated at 10-15kts on
Monday, but lower mixing heights between 4-5kft are helping limit
dispersions. By Tuesday, transport winds and mixing heights both
elevate over the northern and western portions of the region,
leading to pockets of higher dispersions. Similar spatial coverage
of higher dispersions pockets are again likely on Wednesday. Most
rain coverage should remain in the southern and eastern areas of the
region through the forecast period, so the higher dispersions will
lead to some elevated fire concerns.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
There are no flooding concerns.
A dearth of precipitation is expected roughly north of I-10
over the next week with high pressure and a dry air mass in
place. South of I-10, diurnal showers and isolated thunder-
storms may result in up to an inch of precip on average thru
Wednesday, with dry weather Thursday through the weekend.
The US Drought Monitor indicates abnormally dry conditions
from the FL/GA State line into the lower Flint River Valley,
where normal precipitation amounts over this one week time
frame would be around an inch.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  70  87  67 /  30  20  10  10
Panama City   87  72  90  70 /  30  10  10  10
Dothan        85  66  87  63 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        86  65  87  63 /  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      84  68  87  66 /  30  10  10  10
Cross City    84  71  85  69 /  70  30  50  10
Apalachicola  84  73  85  73 /  50  30  30  20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ730-
     755-765-775.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ751-
     752-770-772.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...LF

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion