Fluvanna, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

402
FXUS64 KMAF 210505
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1205 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms (15-40%) continue
  through tonight across southeast New Mexico, Lower Trans Pecos,
  and the higher terrain. The primary threats with the strongest
  storms will be lightning and brief heavy rainfall.
- Near-record high temperatures expected Sunday and Monday.
- Cold front moves through late Tuesday and into Wednesday
  bringing temperatures to near normal. Rain chances around 10-30%
  return for Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery this afternoon
shows the upper ridge centered over southern Sonora, leaving West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under unsettled northwest flow aloft.
A shortwave is moving through the area, resulting in light
convection through the region.  This activity will be clustered
mainly invof the Davis Mountains this afternoon.
Tonight, this activity should diminish rather quickly w/loss of
diurnal heating, to be replaced by a 25 kt LLJ.  This will combine
w/a few clouds to keep overnight minimums ~ 8-10 F above climatology.
Sunday, thicknesses continue increasing, yielding the warmest day
since the beginning of the month as highs top out around 10 F above
normal.  W/the ridge strengthening, only isolated afternoon
convection is expected, if that.
Sunday night, the LLJ increases to 35 kts.  Despite less cloud
cover, this increased mixing will add a degree or so to tonight`s
lows. No convection is anticipated.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
For the start of the coming week, an upper level ridge moves into
the area out of northern Mexico. This will keep temperatures well
above normal for Monday and Tuesday as most locations end up in the
mid to upper 90s. Midland may see record breaking heat on Monday.
The current forecast is for 100F and that would tie the record for
the 22nd set back in 1977. A large trough moves over the Rockies and
flattens the ridge on Tuesday before pushing a cold front through
the region late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Temperatures for
Wednesday and Thursday get pushed down towards normal in the low to
mid 80s nearly areawide. Rain chances increase to around 10-20% for
the Permian Basin and areas south of the I-20 corridor. Long range
guidance keeps low(10-30%) rain chances in the area through the
end of the week and into next weekend, but rain amounts will
continue to be fairly low for most locations. Overnight lows fall
towards normal in the 60s for most, particularly after the passage
of the front late Tuesday. Higher elevation spots will dip into
the 50s.
-Stickney
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions with very low (

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion