Fort Atkinson, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

811
FXUS63 KMKX 011522
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1022 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly cooler today, then temperatures climbing well above
  normal for Thursday through the weekend.
- Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances
  (~20-40%) return for early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 1022 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
No major changes to the forecast. Upper level clouds will
continue to stream in from the southwest today leading to partly
cloudy to overcast skies.
Patterson
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 331 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Today through Thursday:
Thin high cloud cover will continue today as it rotates around
the upper high that will be shifting east of the region. The
upper ridge that extends into Ontario will roll over into New
England and the Lower Great Lakes through Thu. Some weak
vorticity maximums may skirt south central WI during this time
but no rain is expected. At the surface, the large and fairly
strong high pressure area moving into wrn Quebec will track to
New England through Thu. The persistent ely winds today will
cool temps a little more than yesterday, but sly winds will then
return for Thu with a return of 80s for inland areas.
Gehring
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 331 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Thursday night through Tuesday:
Current surface high pressure is progged to be sliding down the
east cost of the US as another upper-level ridge builds back into
the Midwest from the Plains. This will result in an unseasonable
warm up Friday and Saturday. Most models prog temps to climb into
the 80s with a higher potential (>60%) to exceed 85F Friday and
again on Saturday. While NBM and other ensemble guidance have very
low chances, I would not be surprised to see temps over perform
for the end of the week and see a few locations especially closer
to the WI/IL border approach and even crack 90F.
The summer-like pattern will continue as a mid-level trough digs
across the Rockies Saturday and lift northeast across the Central
Plains. Then we look to see a pattern change as the surface low
lifts into the Hudson Bay region and drag a cold front across the
Upper Midwest later Sunday into Monday. This will bring our next
chance, albeit low chances (20-40%) for rain into Monday as well
as cooler, yet still above normal temps for the start of next
week. Then a series of shortwave trough are progged to traverse
across the region into midweek, thus continuing a more active
pattern compared to the current pattern. Nevertheless, there is
still quiet a bit of uncertainty this far out from the early next
week system so expecting forecast to change and may end up drier
as this has been the trend in the extended lately.
Wagner
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 1022 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Upper level
clouds will continue to stream in from the southwest today.
Southeast winds will continue through tonight and become
southerly Thursday.
Patterson
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 331 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Persistent easterly winds will prevail today then becoming a bit
breezy out of the southeast for tonight into Thursday morning.
This will occur as a large area of high pressure around 30.4
inches moves from Quebec to New England through Thursday. The high
will continue to slide south down the US eastern seaboard through
the end of the week, allowing winds to turn out of the south
Thursday through Friday. Broad low pressure will form over the
northern Great Plains Saturday, and will gradually attempt to work
toward the upper Mississippi River Valley by the end of the
weekend. Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms return to
the forecast early next week.
Waves may briefly reach 4 feet early this morning over the
nearshore waters from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor, but there
are much better chances for 3 to 5 foot waves late tonight into
early Thursday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
north of Wind Point for this time period.
Gehring
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645...3 AM Thursday to
     3 PM Thursday.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion