Fort Hancock, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

836
FXUS64 KEPZ 302341
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
541 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 535 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Dry conditions persist through the week ahead.
- Temperatures will climb to around 5 to 8 degrees above normal by
   Thursday as a drier air mass takes over. Southerly winds may also
   become a little breezy Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Upper level shortwave ridging will continue to quickly traverse west
to east across the region with zonal flow settling in thereafter.
Zonal flow aloft will dictate the sensible weather conditions on
Wednesday with continued above average temperatures and mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies.
High pressure aloft will begin building north across the Desert SW
starting Thursday and lasting through Friday. Desert lowland
temperatures will warm back above average, approaching 90 degrees.
Skies will be mostly clear with partly cloudy skies each afternoon,
along with light winds.
By this weekend, the next upper level trough will move across the
Great Basin and Central Rockies. Upper level flow will become
southwesterly, promoting low-end breezy winds on Saturday and
Sunday. Temperatures will remain above average with mostly dry
conditions expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours (or longer).
Winds will be light tonight and from the south or southwest during
the day on Wednesday. Winds will stay below 10 knots on Wednesday.
We have lots of fair weather cu this afternoon. That cu will
slowly disappear as we head into the evening hours and we will
have unlimited ceilings tonight and through the day on Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1040 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Fire weather concerns are low with low fire danger this week with
below normal ERCs and high soil moisture. Min RH 30-40%, dropping
into the 20s by the end of the work week with light west winds 7 to
15 mph. Vent rates will be Good today and Wednesday afternoon with
transport to the east.
The ridge is expected to break down on Saturday as a closed low
sweeps into the Great Basin, leading to an increase in southwest
winds that afternoon. Winds will fall short of hitting critical
thresholds and with minimum RH only dipping into the upper teens,
elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be unlikely. The
aforementioned low will be absorbed into a larger scale trough
cruising the Canada/CONUS border, keeping dry air in place on
Sunday, along with low-end breezy conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  90  66  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            84  57  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               85  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               85  60  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               64  44  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    84  57  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              79  54  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   87  57  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                84  58  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       87  65  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                87  58  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             90  63  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               81  59  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   89  63  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             86  61  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           85  63  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            84  59  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    87  57  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 87  60  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                84  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  75  49  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                75  49  77  49 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 72  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  77  46  79  49 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                84  56  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                84  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             79  47  82  50 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   82  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    85  54  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               81  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  80  56  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   86  58  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  84  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           85  59  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               81  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion