Foster Cemetery, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

059
FXUS63 KILX 200148
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
848 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected this
  weekend into the new week. Total precipitation will vary on
  where storms develop, with probabilistic guidance suggesting a
  30-50% chance for total rainfall amounts over 2 inches.
- Temperatures will stay warm through the weekend then cool closer
  to seasonal normals by the middle parts of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Made some minor adjustments to the pop/wx grids for the rest of
the night and into tomorrow morning. Nothing major but did drop
them below chance category. An updated zfp should come out with in
the next 30 mins.
Auten
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
An upper trough spinning over the Northern Plains will slowly work
into the Upper Mississippi Valley this weekend. Several embedded
shortwaves will rotate through the main trough, bringing occasional
chances for showers and thunderstorms through early next week. After
a brief lull in activity the last few hours, an uptick in coverage
has commenced this afternoon as a shortwave in eastern MO/southwest
IL lifts northward. Latest high resolution guidance shows this
activity pushing north of the area around or shortly after sunset
this evening. Another uptick in coverage is expected late tonight
after midnight with yet another shortwave. Although most should
only see light rain during these periods, the 19.12Z HREF LPMM
shows pockets of 24 hour QPF exceeding 1".
Higher rainfall chances become focused north of the warning area on
Saturday as shortwave activity shifts into northern Illinois.
Precipitation chances increase once again Sunday into Monday (30-
60%) as several subtle shortwaves work through the upper flow.
Although the entire weekend will not be a washout, the pattern
warrants carrying at least low-end precipitation chances until the
details can be refined. Weak shear through the weekend should keep
the threat for any severe weather low. Temperatures will cool
slightly each day, with highs by Sunday expected to peak in the
upper 70s to middle 80s.
Daily rainfall chances continue through the remainder of next week
as a stronger upper low dives southeast into the central US, then
becomes closed off near the middle Mississippi Valley. Upper ridging
will be in place north of upper low, creating another Rex block over
the central US. Central Illinois will be on the cooler, wetter side
of this blocking pattern this time, which is a welcome sight as we
attempt to ease our drought conditions. Little movement in the
closed low will result in at least low-end chances for showers and
storms through the end of next week. Probabilistic guidance has a 30-
50% chance of total QPF through the end of next week, which is an
increase from previous runs.
NMA
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs except
when/if t-storms are near the sites. Will have PROB30 group for
all TAF sites except PIA and it will start on or after midnight
and last for about 4hrs. Cigs will remain VFR but vis could drop
to MVFR with storms. Scattered to broken mid clouds will prevail
at all sites with lower cigs with storms. Winds will be light and
variable through most of the period but then become southwest
tomorrow afternoon.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion