Fowlerton, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

915
FXUS63 KIWX 250744
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
344 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There are low chances for rain showers today, especially near
  Lake Michigan and north of US 30. There will be patchy fog
  this morning.
- Dangerous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan
  through this afternoon. See the latest beach hazards statement
  for details.
- High temperatures will range from 70 to around 80 degrees
  through next week, with lows in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Rain showers are possible today (20-30 percent chances),
particularly near Lake Michigan and north of US 30 through the
afternoon. An upper level low over Lower Michigan will bring another
trough through this morning into the early afternoon. North-
northwest flow off Lake Michigan will persist, so we get a minor
lake contribution of moisture/instability (though not too much
cooler behind the front). Most of the high res guidance has isolated
to scattered showers along the lakeshore starting later this
morning, then shifting eastward and confining to areas further north
through the day. By around 21z, high pressure ridge to the west and
north begins to encroach on our western CWA, with subsidence
quashing any lingering precipitation. Cloud cover will also be on
the decrease today, particularly late this afternoon into the
overnight as the ridge builds in.
Once the trough exits, we start another dry period with the upper
level ridge in place through next weekend. High temperatures will be
in the 70s and low 80s. Lows will be in the 50s and low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Per infrared satellite imagery, a stratus deck is slowing moving
in from the south and patchy fog is beginning to develop across
far northeast Indiana. Overnight, expect low-end VFR ceilings
to persist with more clouds overhead. Much like last night,
patchy dense fog may develop across the area although it will be
transient in nature. Have kept in the TEMPO groups from 9-13Z at
both KSBN and KFWA for potential for fog to drop visibilities
down to 1 mile. IFR to potentially LIFR visibilities and
ceilings are possible this morning, although confidence is low
that fog will impact the terminals for longer than just a few
hours this morning. Fog will dissipate 1-2 hours after sunrise.
During the day, there are chances for scattered lake effect rain
showers near Lake Michigan. Showers will likely be in the
vicinity of KSBN during the morning and early afternoon hours so
have added VCSH in the TAF to accommodate that. Did not feel
confident enough to add in a PROB30 group, although that may
change with the 12Z TAF issuance. Otherwise, northwest flow
ensues later this afternoon and evening with clearing skies by
the evening hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Continued north-northwest winds at 10 to 20 knots will persist
through the day near the Lake MI shoreline. Wave direction will
linger between 340-360, which is a favorable angle of approach for
strong southward flowing longshore currents, strong structural
currents (esp. on the north sides of piers/breakwalls), and rip
currents within the sandbars (especially further south). Wave
heights look to remain around 3 to 5 feet today, with periods of 5
to 6 seconds. Waves subside this afternoon to around 2 to 3 feet,
and remain less than 2 feet through the remainder of the week with
weak flow ahead. Extended what will be the final beach hazards
statement of the swim season through this afternoon based on the
aforementioned high swim risk conditions. Moderate swim risk
conditions are expected late this afternoon through the evening. The
final Surf Zone Forecast for the 2025 season will be sent September
30th, 2025. Forecasts and beach hazards statements will resume
Wednesday May 20th, 2026 (prior to Memorial Day Weekend).
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-
     046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Johnson
MARINE...MCD/Johnson

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion