Front Royal, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

141
FXUS61 KLWX 260115
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
915 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push east of the region late tonight into
Friday before stalling southeast of the area this weekend.
High pressure over eastern Canada builds south early next week
while a tropical system lifts northward across the western
Atlantic. Depending on track, additional rainfall chances are
possible next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 9 PM, earlier showers and storms are in the process of
weakening as they progress off to our east. There are two areas
of showers remaining on radar at the moment. The first is
located over Cecil County and will rapidly move off toward the
east in the next hour. The second area is in Central Virginia in
the vicinity of Charlottesville. This area of showers has also
shown signs of weakening over time, but could produce some brief
light rain from Central Virginia toward the I-95 corridor south
of DC this evening. Much of the night will remain dry
elsewhere, although a brief shower can`t be ruled out to the
south and east of I-95 during the second half of the night.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy, but a few breaks in the cloud
cover may try to develop later tonight. With saturated air in
place at low-levels and very light to calm winds in place,
patchy fog will start to form in locations that receive those
breaks in the clouds. Temperatures will remain mild overnight,
with lows in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Within the next few days, it appears that Friday will offer the
quietest weather ahead as the frontal zone settles off to the
south. The latest frontal forecast places this boundary near
southern Maryland on Friday evening before drifting toward
southeastern Virginia by Saturday. While the region will be in a
post-frontal environment, a developing upper low pinching off
around the Tennessee Valley favors a return to active weather.
During the past couple of forecast cycles, the guidance has
trended wetter with precipitation chances rising to 40 to 70
percent. This is particularly the case south of I-66 which is
closer to the higher moisture content and forcing from the upper
low. Expect this pattern to persist into the second half of the
the weekend.
The temperature forecast on Friday shows an upward trend given
an uptick in sunshine. This favors a more widespread area of low
80s, with cooler readings in the mountains (mid 60s to low 70s).
Temperatures gradually drop into Saturday with more clouds and
more of an onshore component to the wind fields. Overnight lows
remain seasonable with readings in the low/mid 60s (mid/upper
50s from the Blue Ridge westward).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is some discrepancies in the models with track, timing and
intensity of two tropical systems in the western Atlantic Basin late
this weekend into the middle part of next week.
The 12z GFS model has Humberto remaining out to sea and curving
around Bermuda, while a current tropical wave near Hispaniola
intensifies and moves into the South Carolina Coast Monday into
Monday night. With this model, precipitation could spread into
our region Monday night through Tuesday night but would be more
concentrated along I-64 in the Virginia Piedmont and areas to
the south. Amounts could be one- half inch or a little more.
The 6z EURO model is considerably wetter in a prolonged duration
from Sunday through Tuesday night. This model takes into account a
slow-moving cut-off mid-level low pressure system over the Tennessee
Valley that could slowly draw this tropical wave into the South
and North Carolina Coastline and then inland. With this model,
numerous rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms for the
better part of 24 to 36 hours and then gradually diminishing in
coverage and number the following 12 to 24 hours. This could
result in one to three inches of rain or more depending on areas
that are hit repeatedly. Similar to the GFS, Humberto is
expected to curve around Bermuda and stay out to sea. The 12z
EURO model run is not in the model system yet, but nonetheless,
probably a huge similarity will be prolonged wetness in the mid-
Atlantic region Sunday through Tuesday night.
The Canadian model has a different solution in which it has Humberto
and the developing tropical system merges into one large low
pressure system...probably becoming one strong extra-tropical
system offshore of the Southeast Coast before moving out to sea.
The Canadian doesn`t have landfall with either tropical system.
There are other discrepancies in other models as well but as we get
closer into the heart of the weekend, we will be able to
decipher which model is best to follow. In the meantime, for
further details on the tropical systems, please go to
www.nhc.noaa.gov
Going into Tuesday night and Wednesday, as tropical systems and/or a
mix of tropical or extra-tropical lows move away, dry conditions
should ensue with high pressure building in from the northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry and prevailing VFR conditions are expected overnight. Some
patchy fog may be possible later tonight, especially at MRB or
CHO.
VFR conditions are likely on Friday with mainly north to
northwesterly winds around 5 to 10 knots. The earlier frontal
system eventually drops to near southeastern Virginia by
Saturday. Easterly onshore flow emerges with some restrictions
at times as showers break out with the approach of a slow moving
upper low.
VFR conditions Sunday through Monday night are possible. However, we
will need to monitor the two tropical systems in the western
Atlantic Basin to see if there will be any significant impact with a
landfall into the Carolinas. If there is and rainfall becomes
dominant and prolonged, then IFR or LIFR could be the story. Winds
northeast 5 to 10 knots through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Earlier Small Craft Advisories have been canceled. Winds will
shift to northwesterly on Friday behind a cold front. Gradients
are rather weak so gusts top out around 10 knots. Winds
eventually shift to easterly onshore flow on Saturday as the
front settles further to the south.
No marine hazards Sunday through Monday night at this time. However,
we will need to see if the two tropical systems affect our region.
If so, then Special Marine Warnings or Marine Weather Statements may
be imminent. Winds northeast 10 to 15 knots through the
period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A Coastal Flood Advisory is currently in effect for Annapolis,
with Minor Flooding ongoing. Winds will shift to out of the
northwest later tonight into tomorrow behind a cold front, which
should allow tidal anomalies to decrease slightly. Many
locations may still reach Action stage with upcoming tide cycles
on Friday. Minor flooding may be possible at the most sensitive
sites on Saturday as winds turn out of the east.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BRO/KLW/KJP
MARINE...BRO/KLW/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion