Frozen Creek, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

981
FXUS63 KJKL 211332
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
932 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few thunderstorms could become strong to severe this afternoon
  and evening, especially for the western half of eastern
  Kentucky. The main threat will be isolated damaging wind gusts.
  Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on
  Monday.
- Widespread, beneficial rainfall is expected this week, which
  will help to improve ongoing drought conditions.
- An additional threat for strong thunderstorms may develop on
  Thursday, but there is still high uncertainty in the forecast
  for late this week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2025
The Marginal Risk has been expanded southeastward across
southwestern parts of the forecast, now including Wayne and most
of McCreary Counties. Otherwise, the Marginal Risk remains similar
to previous outlook issuances.
Based on radar trends, PoPs were updated to account for the
upstream convection across central and southern Kentucky moving
toward the forecast area. Otherwise, changes with the mid-morning
update were minimal.
UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure now well off to the east of
Kentucky as low pressure approaches from the northwest.
Nevertheless, this pattern has kept skies mostly clear through the
night - with just a thin band of high clouds noted - allowing for
a moderate ridge to valley split along with some early morning
river valley fog. Temperatures currently range from the mid and
upper 50s in some valleys under clear skies to the mid 60s to the
southwest and on the ridges of the east. Meanwhile, amid light
southeasterly winds, dewpoints have come up more and are now
running in the upper 50s to mid 60s, most places.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of
the forecast. They all depict our pattern change underway as 5h
troughing holds forth over the Upper Midwest and height falls
work deeper into the Ohio Valley through the start of the new work
week. In this environment, a couple key mid-level shortwave
impulses will pass through eastern Kentucky. The first arrives
this afternoon before a lull tonight and then another stronger one
pushes in by Monday evening along with more substantive height
falls. The small model spread during the short term part of the
forecast supported using the NBM as the starting point of the
forecast grids with minimal adjustments needed - mainly just to
include some minor terrain enhancements for temperatures this
morning and details/timing specifics from the CAMs for PoPs this
afternoon through early Monday evening.
Sensible weather features better chances for showers and storms
for most of the area into the afternoon and early evening,
compared to yesterday, as increasing moisture and instability
meet up with better support aloft. In fact, a strengthening wind
field off the sfc could help the storms to become more organized
and form clusters yielding a potential for damaging wind gusts as
the main concern. The diurnal heating cycle will lead to storms
winding down this evening as the better support shifts east. This
will mean a night of patchy fog and partly to mostly cloudy skies
before more storms will probably develop Monday afternoon.
Similar thermodynamics and wind fields as today will again result
in a potential for organized storms and isolated severe threats
from damaging wind gusts to start the work week. Temperatures
will continue to be above normal through the end of astronomical
summer.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adjusting PoPs this afternoon and Monday per the latest CAMs
consensus guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 525 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2025
The latest run of the NBM supported a wetter and more stormy
pattern for much of the upcoming work week - as advertised.
Accordingly, the forecast was not changed much with this update
aside from some spot temperature adjustments for highs and lows
into next weekend.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The long-term forecast period dawns Monday morning with a broad,
low-amplitude 500 hPa trough, its axis extending from Lake
Superior southward along the Mississippi River. Upstream, a 500
hPa Pacific trough is traversing the northern Rockies. At the
surface, a wavy front extends from weak low pressure north of Lake
Huron to another area of low pressure over South Dakota. Abundant
moisture will be feeding northward across much of the CONUS
between the Appalachians and Rockies in advance of these troughs.
Model agreement is good initially, but spread increases markedly
as the pattern becomes more complex later in the period.
The trough over the Mississippi Valley will retreat northeastward
on Monday and Tuesday while the Pacific trough digs deeply as it
descends the Rockies. A substantial portion of the LREF ensemble
members favor this new trough closing off near or over Missouri on
Wednesday, becoming the primary weather driver for the Ohio
Valley later in the week as it and an associated surface
reflection drift eastward. Pieces of upper-level energy ejecting
from the developing low will interact with a moist airmass over
the Ohio Valley (PWATs of 1.3 to 1.6 inches), supporting
diurnally-modulated convection through Wednesday. As the systems
associated surface low drifts just north of the Lower Ohio River
from Thursday into early Friday, a cold front is favored to wrap
around the southern side of the occluding low. The proximity and
probable position of the low on Thursday still appears to support
the most favorable shear/instability environment of the week for
a few strong to severe thunderstorms. The greatest forecast
uncertainty comes after Thursday. Yesterday, the system had
overall been favored to push eastward and perhaps tend northward
and become recaptured by the mid-latitude westerlies over Southern
Canada. However, recent model solutions also support other
outcomes, including a scenario where most of the energy shears
southward, causing the upper low to reorganize near or over
Western Kentucky before dropping south of the region by week`s
end. This outcome would favor the unsettled pattern lingering over
eastern Kentucky through Saturday. Thus, forecaster uncertainty
is high for the late-week period. By far the greatest material
forecast change over the last 24 hours has been a marked increase
in forecast rainfall amounts. Probabilities for at least one inch
of rainfall through Saturday have climbed, now ranging from a 70%
chance in the far east to a 90% chance near Lake Cumberland.
Furthermore, there is now a 30% chance in the east and a 50%
chance in the west for at least two inches of rainfall through
Saturday. The LREF 10th- to- 90th- percentile spread suggests
reasonable rainfall totals could range from 0.75-1.00 inch on the
low end to as much as 3.00-3.50 inches on the high end. This
guidance confidently suggests that a drought-reducing, or perhaps
even drought-erasing, rainfall is possible for much of the
Commonwealth.
In terms of sensible weather, expect variable cloud cover with
daily shower and thunderstorm chances: mainly scattered from
Monday through Wednesday, becoming numerous on Thursday, with
activity likely lingering into the weekend. The most extensive
activity can be expected during the afternoon and early evening.
Daily high temperatures will gradually cool from the low to
mid-80s on Monday to the mid-70s by Saturday. Nighttime lows range
in the mid 50s to mid 60s through Thursday night before likely
cooling into the 50s for the weekend. Fog formation is favored
each night in the typical river valley locales but is also likely
to be more extensive in areas that receive substantial rainfall in
the afternoon/evening hours followed by at least partial clearing.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2025
Valley fog has developed early this morning but is expected to
dissipate by 14Z without affecting any TAF sites. Showers and
storms should develop between 16Z today and 02Z Monday. Isolated
to scattered storms could affect some or all of the TAF sites
during that time with reductions to MVFR or lower anticipated.
Winds outside of showers and storms will be light and variable,
becoming light out of the south to southwest at 5 to 10 KT after
about 15Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion