Geneva, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

664
FXUS62 KMLB 281922
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
322 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions unfolding this
  week; life-threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking
  waves of 6 to 10 feet, and moderate beach erosion
- Gusty conditions with Imelda`s closest approach on Monday;
  breezy to windy each day with higher gusts at the coast through
  much of the week
- Periods of scattered showers, especially at the immediate coast,
  as Tropical Storm Imelda makes its closest approach through
  Monday; instances of locally heavy rainfall remain possible
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Now-Tonight...Several features are influencing our weather this
afternoon, including a quasi-stationary surface front, weak upper
level trough, and a strengthening pressure gradient associated with
newly-designated Tropical Storm Imelda over the Bahamas. Clouds
continue to stream northward along the immediate coast with a mix of
sun and clouds over the interior. At 2 PM, scattered showers and
embedded lightning storms were stretching from the Volusia coast to
the Orlando metro and Lake Kissimmee. A steady stream of showers has
also been affecting portions of St. Lucie and Martin counties. Hi-
res guidance suggests that at least isolated to scattered activity
will continue through the early evening, followed by more onshore-
moving showers after midnight. While a washout for any given
location is not anticipated, persistent bands of showers could
produce brief instances of locally heavy rainfall. Increasingly
gusty conditions are forecast along the coast tonight, especially
south of Cape Canaveral, as Imelda organizes and continues to move
northward. Winds gradually become more northerly through sunrise
Monday as Imelda moves over the northwestern Bahamas.
The risk for life-threatening rip currents continues to increase at
all area beaches this afternoon. Residents and visitors should stay
out of the surf! In addition, a Tropical Storm Watch remains in
effect for coastal areas of east-central Florida, adjacent to a
Tropical Storm Warning for all of the local Atlantic waters.
Monday-Tuesday...Prolonged and significant coastal impacts develop
quickly, beginning Monday morning, as Tropical Storm Imelda
parallels the east coast of Florida. Breezy to windy conditions are
forecast, with gusts ranging from 20 to 30 mph inland and 30 to
occasionally 40 mph at the coast. Rain chances through the day are
highest along and east of Interstate 95, though onshore-moving
showers will push inland from time to time. With Imelda, the highest
rain totals are expected to stay well offshore, situated closer to
the center of the system. However, 1 to 3 inches of rain with
isolated amounts to 4 inches are still possible over the next couple
of days.
From earlier this morning, the latest official forecast track of
Imelda has trended slightly more seaward. With a relatively compact
upper trough over the Carolinas and Hurricane Humberto to its east,
Imelda now looks to take a sharp eastward turn Tuesday morning (away
from the southeast U.S. coast). The system is still forecast to
strengthen into a hurricane by the time it starts this eastward turn
on Tuesday. Regardless of this shift in the track, a combination of
strong north-northwesterly winds, increasing long-period swells from
both Imelda and Humberto, and large breaking waves of 6 to 10 feet
is likely to produce beach erosion along portions of the east-
central Florida coast. Wave run-up to the dune line and sea walls is
expected over multiple high tide cycles. As a result, a High Surf
Advisory has been issued, beginning early Monday morning and
continuing through (at least) late Wednesday night. The potential
for coastal flooding is also being monitored and additional
headlines may be needed by mid week. In summary, beach conditions
will become hazardous rather quickly on Monday, remaining dangerous
through Tuesday. Residents and visitors should stay out of the water.
Temperatures to start the week will reach the mid 80s during the day
and settle into the mid 70s each night. The Volusia coast may stay a
couple of degrees cooler Monday afternoon, due to the persistent
onshore wind. This temperature forecast is close to or slightly
below normal for late September.
Wednesday-Sunday (modified previous)...Mid and upper level troughing
persists from mid week into the weekend, as Imelda is pulled
eastward into the Atlantic. Meanwhile, high pressure builds atop the
upper troughing, across northern portions of the U.S. Locally, drier
air on the western periphery of Imelda is forecast to linger through
Wednesday. Then, modest moisture looks to return Thursday into
Friday, before deep moisture is advected northward this weekend as
the high begins to shift offshore. Lower rain chances (20-45%)
Wednesday will increase through the period, returning to around 50-
60% through Sunday. Global models disagree on the extent of
precipitation late this week, so have trended towards NBM.
Temperatures will see a cool down, with fall-like highs in the lower
to mid 80s by Thursday.
While Imelda will be moving away from the area, strong high pressure
to the north will maintain a tight pressure gradient and breezy
conditions into the weekend. North to north-northeasterly winds
Wednesday will veer onshore late week, becoming 15 mph over the
interior and up to 15-20 mph along the coast each afternoon. These
winds, combined with incoming long-period swells from distant
Hurricane Humberto, will maintain dangerous beach and boating
conditions through at least Sunday. The high risk of rip currents is
likely to continue through at least this weekend, and the High Surf
Advisory may also need to be extended in time. Residents and
visitors, if at all planning to head to the beach, should exercise
caution and remain out of the surf.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
This afternoon, 41009 is experiencing 10-15 kt winds with waves
around 4 ft. Similar conditions can be found farther south at 41114
and 41068, with an increasing east-northeast swell around 10-11
seconds. The pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen into
tonight as Tropical Storm Imelda lifts northward through the
Bahamas. While the center of the system remains east of the local
waters, dangerous boating conditions are forecast into Monday, with
waves peaking 8-13 ft nearshore and 14-18 ft offshore by Monday
night. Tropical-storm-force gusts are anticipated for a large
portion of the waters Monday, lasting through at least early Tuesday
morning. As such, a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for all
marine legs adjacent to east-central Florida.
By Tuesday, Imelda is forecast to turn sharply east-northeast as it
potentially strengthens into a hurricane. A strong pressure gradient
surrounding the storm will maintain 20-25 kt northerly winds Tuesday
with gusts 30+ kt. Winds veer more onshore mid to late week but
maintain speeds of at least 15-20 kt (higher offshore). Lingering
long-period swells from Imelda and distant Humberto will create
hazardous seas ranging from 8-15 ft from Tuesday through Friday.
Bands of gusty showers with occasional lightning storms are
forecast, especially over the Gulf Stream and nearer to Imelda`s
center. Drier air starts to work against rain chances by mid week,
but continued scattered showers are anticipated. Additional moisture
late week into the weekend brings rain chances up again, closer to
50-60 percent.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Moist onshore flow north of Tropical Storm Imelda across the
Bahamas will continue to produce scattered showers and storms
across the region this afternoon. This activity will produce tempo
IFR/MVFR conditions. As Imelda lifts slowly northward tonight into
tomorrow, low level flow becomes N/NE, with scattered showers and
isolated storms still moving onshore along the coast and
developing inland. Predominant MVFR cigs are forecast to build
into this evening and linger through Monday as Imelda lifts
northward.
NE winds around 10-15 knots will become N/NE into tonight and
decrease across the interior. However, winds will become breezy
and gusty (15-20 knots sustained and gusts to 20-25 knots) along
the coast from around KMLB southward overnight through Monday
morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  84  73  84 /  60  60  40  50
MCO  75  86  74  87 /  30  50  20  30
MLB  76  86  74  87 /  60  40  40  40
VRB  75  86  74  88 /  70  50  40  40
LEE  73  86  73  86 /  20  40  10  20
SFB  75  86  74  86 /  40  60  30  40
ORL  75  86  74  86 /  30  50  20  30
FPR  75  86  73  88 /  60  50  30  40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.
High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM EDT Thursday for
     FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.
AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Weitlich

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion