Gilbert, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

027
FXUS63 KDLH 161730
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms are possible through tonight, with
  a few strong thunderstorms possile in the Arrowhead.
- Warm to hot temperatures continue today and Wednesday, then a
  return to more seasonal temperatures.
-  On-and-off shower and storm chances through the week and
   into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
A vertically stacked low pressure system is centered over south
central Canada, over Lake Winnipeg, with upper level ridging
across Lake Michigan toward Hudson Bay. A cold front extends
southward through eastern ND, arching southwest and into
western NE, while broad surface high pressure is centered over
Quebec. Locally, light low level winds are out of the south to
southeast, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds are a
bit weaker tonight and not seeing the extensive fog and low
clouds that have settled over the region the last few mornings.
Patchy fog and lower cigs should be confined to the more typical
foggier spots, with low clouds closer to the shore lines.
For today, continued low level warm and moisture advection will
continue with PWs remaining over 1 inch and approaching
1.25inches by this evening for locations south of US-2. There
is not much of a surface boundary to focus any convection on
today, and with the continued southeasterly winds, the airmass
will remain capped through much of the day. This will allow for
instability to build below the cap as high temperatures warm
into the 80s (mid to upper 70s along the immediate shore line)
with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Best CAPE values will be
along and south of the Iron Range, where those dewpoints will
be greatest and better mid level lapse rates arrive this
afternoon. By late afternoon, stronger mid level winds arrive as
a shortwave moves eastward along the Canadian border. This
enhances shear parameters north of the Iron Range and in to the
Arrowhead.
There will be an area where shear parameters overlay with
better instability and those decreasing lapse rates, and a few
thunderstorms develop by late afternoon and evening. Given the
uncertainty on where this setup occurs, there is low confidence
on where storms could develop. For now, will include rain/storm
chances in an axis from near the Brainerd Lakes northeastward
into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. However, if storms
do develop, and there might only be a few, they will likely be
strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds possible.
A weak cold front pushes into the area tonight, and likely hangs
up somewhere as upper level ridging amplifies over the region
Wednesday. This will provide a focus for scattered showers and
storms. Over the northern Plains, a messy broad upper trough
will become more organized by the end of the week, and push
toward the Great Lakes by the weekend. With continued southerly
flow on the east side of the trough and weak impulses rotating
through the Northland, continued scattered rain chances are
expected most days through the weekend. Good news - with surface
high pressure nearby to our north, low level easterly flow will
keeps temperatures to more seasonal numbers into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon mainly in far northern
Minnesota will be montired for any TAF amendments that may be
needed, especially near Hibbing. Isolated thunderstorm chances
last into tonight with a strong thunderstorm possible into the
Arrowhead ahead of an advancing cool front. Areas of fog again
produce a few hours of expect IFR to LIFR visibility 09-14Z.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Areas of fog have formed along the shores of western Lake
Superior this morning, but expect conditions to improve with
sunrise this morning, as winds become light from roughly the
southeast. Winds remain light and variable Wednesday as well,
then more persistent east/northeast winds are expected Thursday
and Friday with some conditions that may be hazardous for small
craft on Friday. There will be on- and-off chances for isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.
Severe weather is not expected at this time, though a stronger
storm or two capable of some gusty winds or small hail is
possible this afternoon and Tuesday evening.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...HA

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion