Gilchrist, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

602
FXUS66 KMFR 181547
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
847 AM PDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows a weak upper trough lurking
offshore and at the same time moisture is moving in the southern
part of the forecast area in advance of a weak upper low in
combination with some tropical moisture from the remnants of
Tropical Storm Mario. Cloud cover in northern California is
already increasing and will only continue to move northward during
the course of the day.
Instability is going to increase during the day, however depending
on the amount of cloud cover, this could put a cap on the amount
of thunderstorms this afternoon. Meaning they will be isolated at
best and current data suggest it should be mainly confined to
western Siskiyou County, including the Trinity Horn. Meanwhile,
less cloud cover is expected in the northern Cascades and this
could result in more instability late in the afternoon. The net
result will be building cumulus. However, we`ll have to keep a
close watch on any signs of isolated storm development.
Tonight, any isolated storms will end early this evening with dry
weather overnight tonight. Some of the high res guidance hints at
some potential overnight showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm or two west of the Cascades from Josephine County
north to northeast to eastern Douglas County, but the evidence is
not sufficient enough to have anything in there at the moment.
This will be looked at in more detail today and any changes will
be made later today.
Updates were made to the forecast to reflect the above mentioned
for today and tonight. -Petrucelli
&&
.AVIATION...18/12Z TAFs...Satellite image shows marine stratus
over most of Douglas County with MVFR ceilings at Roseburg, and
along the coast around Cape Blanco and just south of Brookings.
The marine stratus will burn off during the morning with ceilings
improving to VFR at Roseburg towards 18z. VFR conditions are
likely for the afternoon. However high and mid level clouds will
move up from the south in northern Cal this morning, and in Oregon
late this morning and afternoon. Isolated storms could be a
concern in western Siskiyou County late this afternoon and
evening. VFR conditions are expected tonight, although some
guidance suggest marine stratus could form towards 10z at North
Bend. -Petrucelli
&&
.MARINE...Updated 845 AM PDT Thursday, September 18, 2025...Gusty
north winds continue to build across area waters today. This will
result in steep to very steep seas north of Cape Blanco, with
possible gale gusts south of Cape Blanco. These conditions continue
through at least Friday morning, but steep seas could linger into
the evening hours. Generally light winds and light to moderate seas
are then expected through the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for
     PZZ356-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ370.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion