Gillmore, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

179
FXUS63 KJKL 251835
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
235 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A daily risk for isolated showers will then continue through
  the weekend, mainly near the Virginia and Tennessee border.
- The remnants of a tropical system may impact the area for the
  early part of next week bringing the potential for heavy
  rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 234 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2025
Surface analysis across the CONUS is slowly becoming quieter. The
synoptic features, mentioned in previous discussions still remain,
merely translated a few hundred miles to the east. Locally, a cold
front, extending southwest from a surface low over western New York,
has passed through the area and is currently impacting West Virginia
and Virginia. However, some lingering showers are still developing
across the area as the upper-level trough will provide sufficient
dynamic forcing for precipitation development through the afternoon.
As mentioned above, the remainder of the day will be characterized
by cold FROPA and forcing from a persistent upper-level trough. This
trough has been affecting the eastern CONUS for the last several
days. Through the day today and into Friday, the trough will pivot
overhead but still maintain its positive tilt over the region. As
upper-level forcing remains present, showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop through the afternoon before gradually
tapering off toward the early overnight. With widespread cloud cover
expected this afternoon, high temperatures will only reach the mid-
70s, but where there are breaks in the clouds, a few locations may
reach the upper 70s. Cloud cover is expected to remain overhead
through the overnight, leading to a mostly mild night with lows only
falling into the mid-50s to lower 60s with areas of patchy dense fog.
Friday through the rest of the period will bring similar
temperatures, as highs will climb into the mid to upper 70s.
However, the highlight from Friday through Saturday will be the
cutting off of the trough to form a closed cut-off circulation.
Morning and early afternoon model suites consistently show the H5
trough being cut off from the mean flow, with the resultant closed
circulation centered over the Central Appalachians. As this occurs,
the chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be focused
over the southeastern portions of Kentucky. Forecast streamlines of
1000 hPa to 500 hPa RH show the best moisture fetch across those
areas as southerly flow is drawing up Gulf moisture. Conversely,
northerly flow around the closed circulation will advect drier air
into the northwestern portions of the CWA, limiting the potential
for afternoon convection in those areas. Any shower or thunderstorm
that does develop will quickly taper off toward sunset. Similar to
Thursday night, areas of patchy dense fog could develop again for
Friday night into Saturday, with overnight lows falling into the mid
to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2025
For Saturday, a positive upper trough axis will continue to move
slowly into the central and southern Appalachians with the frontal
boundary moving well southeast of the area.  However, an inverted
surface trough will remain across the far eastern sections of
east Kentucky.
Shear axis and associated Q-Vector forcing will help keep chances of
showers especially areas near the KY/VA and KY/TN state-lines.
Ensemble and latest deterministic models show CAPE values of 500
near the KY/VA and KY/TN stateline.  These areas will have the
greatest chance of scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm in
the afternoon/early evening.
For Sunday, ensemble cluster analysis shows upper trough axis moving
east of the area with northerly flow aloft drying the area-mass over
the region. More sunshine and mostly dry conditions. Only the far
eastern counties have a slight chance of showers.
For early next week (especially Monday and Tuesday), upper trough
over the eastern United States becomes a cut-off low over the
southeast United States. The evolution of this upper trough/low will
play a major role in how the tropical systems affect the central and
southern Appalachians. Confidence is low of tropical track and
impacts over east Kentucky.
For Wednesday into Thursday of next week, a lot of uncertainties and
confidence low in regard to the phasing of the tropical system and
remains of weakening upper low over the southeast United States and
Appalachians. The ensemble cluster analysis and deterministic models
differ a good deal. There is a potential of a good deal of sub-
tropical moisture remaining over the area keeping shower activity
and cloudy sky. Again, instability remains quite limited at best
thus thunder chances are low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2025
Terminals are slowly improving across the area this afternoon as a
break in the clouds can be seen on satellite. Presently all TAF
sites are a combination of MVFR and VFR; however, as a cold front
approaches, lowering CIGS will bring terminals back into
categorical MVFR/IFR through the remainder of the period. As the
front approaches, showers and isolated thunderstorms can be
expected through roughly 00Z/Friday before frontal passage causes
showers/storms to dissipate. Post-frontal stratus is forecast to
develop overnight causing all TAFs to fall into IFR and even
possibly LIFR through the overnight and into the early morning.
Lastly, light and variable winds are forecast through the period
but a rouge stronger storm could produce gusty and erratic winds
this afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...VORST

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion