Gillsburg, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

248
FXUS64 KLIX 250445
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- A strong thunderstorm or two will remain possible with the
   potential for strong gusty winds, small hail, frequent
   lightning and heavy rainfall through Thursday morning.
- Behind the front a dry pattern will take place once again
   limiting rain chances through most of the extended range.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A cold front and parent upper trough will continue to move into
the region. The surface front is forecast to finally move through
later this afternoon or early evening with precip chances starting
to drop considerably from northwest to southeast with the much
drier air filtering into the region behind the front.
Ahead of the front rain and storm chances will remain quite high
with a very moisture rich environment residing over the region at
least again ahead of the front. Plus, the digging shortwave
providing some upper level support. From a severe weather
standpoint the threat is NOT zero, however, the best dynamics will
be east of the region. A strong wind gusts or two and some small
hail would be possible in the wider and more robust updrafts just
prior to the frontal passage.
As for temperatures, highs today will be likely held down not
because of the front, but instead of the increased coverage of
cloudiness and higher POPs. Going into the weekend max
temperatures do rebound above average, however, dry conditions are
expected, which means daytime temperatures are tolerable and
overnight temperatures (especially along and north of I10/12) will
be drop into the lower to middle 60s. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The broad scale upper level trough will remain firmly over the
eastern US going into the weekend and to start the new workweek.
Despite the lower heights and thicknesses, surface heating will
lead to daytime highs approving 90 agrees or roughly four degrees
or so above average for late September. Going further into the
long term globals show the trough merging with another from the
plains letting an upper level low spin over the area. This feature
is fairly robust for an H5 ULL this time of year so this will have
a bit of implication on the surface temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday. Meanwhile, nightly lows will mostly be in the 60s away
from water. The long term will remain mostly rain free and could
stay there with a Rex Block developing over the MS River Valley.
The GFS is a bit stronger with this feature than the ECMWF but
still painted well within the operational and ensemble solutions.
(Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
There will be a lull in convection through the evening before
additional shower and storm development takes place overnight.
Convective potential should decrease from northwest to southeast
as a frontal system moves through shutting down most of the
showers and storms. VFR outside of storms. Inside as low as
IFR...and stratiform showers outside of the main convection may
experience MVFR or lower categories. Winds remain mostly light and
variable. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A surface cold front continues to move south and east toward our
region. The front should make it to our local waters mid day or
early evening on Thursday. Ahead of the front shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase. Expected locally higher winds
and seas in and around convection. Surface winds will increase a
bit but should stay below SCA thresholds. Going into the longer
term, overall winds and seas should take on a benign state. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  69  83  64 /  80  80  50  10
BTR  89  72  85  66 /  90  80  50  10
ASD  90  72  84  66 /  70  60  80  30
MSY  92  75  86  72 /  70  50  70  30
GPT  89  74  86  69 /  50  50  80  40
PQL  90  72  86  67 /  40  50  80  50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion