Glen Arbor, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

777
FXUS63 KAPX 172304
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
704 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry for most tonight; slight shower/ thunder chance across
  western Mackinac county and far northwest Lower.
- Sharp temperature gradient Thursday (upper 60s north, to low
  80s south) with continued slight chances for drizzle/ light
  rain showers.
- Turning cooler with better rain chances by the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
High pressure overhead continues to slide east this afternoon
as a weakening ridge gives way to a cold front pressing into
northern Michigan. Plenty of dry air remains in place, so the
front is not expected to bring much more than an increase in
clouds and perhaps a few pockets of drizzle/ light rain showers
later tonight into Thursday morning, mainly across eastern Upper
and reaching into far northern Lower. Otherwise, the remainder
of today stays warm and dry with highs well into the 80s away
from the lakeshores where afternoon breezes provide localized
cooling.
Clouds linger into Thursday north of M-32 corridor where highs
will be held in the upper 60s to low 70s... Occasional patchy
drizzle is not out of the question. Further south, more sunshine
is expected to return with highs pushing well into the 70s to
low 80s along M-55 and south.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
High pressure builds across the Great Lakes Thursday night into
Saturday, bringing quiet weather and a cooler, more seasonable
airmass. Northerly flow will keep highs mainly in the upper 60s
to near 70 Friday, though a few downsloping spots in northwest
Lower may sneak into the mid 70s. Friday night turns cooler with
lows falling into the 40s. Saturday trends similar with
continued dry conditions and pleasant early fall weather.
Attention then turns to late in the weened as a more organized
system looks to track through the region Sunday. This looks to
bring our next chance for more widespread rain showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder as better moisture and lift arrive.
Ahead of this feature, highs rebound into the upper 70s to low
80s before cooler air returns behind it. Monday through midweek
looks cooler and at least somewhat unsettled, with highs largely
in the upper 60s/ 70s and occasional chances for showers as
additional disturbances rotate through the Great Lakes.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 703 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
High cloud associated with convection across the central U.P. will
continue to spread over parts of northern Michigan this evening and
tonight, mainly south of the bridge. This, combined with potential
low/mid cloud development, will work to limit FG/BR across parts of
northern lower late tonight/early Thursday morning. Low stratus and
FG/BR development is expected across the eastern U.P. and Tip of the
Mitt with initially clear skies and weak winds allowing for
efficient radiational cooling, likely dropping both CIGs and VSBYs
to LIFR/VLIFR late tonight/early Thursday morning. Most likely TAF
sites impacted are CIU with slightly lesser chances at PLN. Chances
for LIFR/VLIFR conditions decrease with southward extent. While
FG/BR is expected to lift through the morning, improving conditions
across the area with time, low stratus and associated IFR/MVFR CIGs
may linger across the eastern U.P./Tip of the Mitt through much of
the morning before cloud cover scatters out during the
afternoon.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion