Glenburnie, Maryland Weather Forecast Discussion

686
FXUS61 KLWX 031800
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure initially located overhead will shift offshore
this weekend. A strong cold front will move through during the
middle of next week. High pressure will build back in behind the
cold front for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Thin high clouds were streaming west to east across the area as
of mid afternoon in association with a weak upper-level trough.
A broad area of high pressure remains in place along the East
Coast extending from New England southwestward down the spine
of the Appalachians. This area of high pressure will bring
continued dry conditions to the area through tonight. Aloft, a
weak upper trough axis embedded within broader ridging across
the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS will move offshore this
evening. Any leftover clouds should dissipate around sunset.
Clear skies and light to calm winds are expected tonight with
lows in the 40s and lower 50s. Some patchy fog may be possible
later tonight, especially near bodies of water (rivers/streams).
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will shift offshore this weekend as upper-level
ridging strengthens overhead. The lingering influence of high
pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will result in
continued dry conditions with sunny skies during the day and
clear skies at night. As high pressure moves offshore, winds
will turn out of the south which will lead to a gradual warming
trend in both high and low temperatures. High temperatures on
both Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 70s to near 80,
with lower 70s in the mountains. Low temperatures will be in the
upper 40s to 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Next week is likely to start out very warm as the large surface high
pulls offshore and a 590 dam mid-level ridge builds over the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast. Low-level flow turns south to southwest on
Monday, and aided by subsidence aloft should allow highs to reach
the low to mid 80s Monday and Tuesday.
A strong cold front approaches the area from the west on Tuesday.
Breezy conditions are likely to develop ahead of the front Tuesday
afternoon, with some ensemble guidance indicating gusts of 20-25 mph
are possible. The current NBM temps are probably too low Tuesday
afternoon, especially west of the Blue Ridge and elevated valleys in
the Alleghenies where downsloping south-southeast winds will lead to
warmer temps. Would not be surprised if the Cumberland to Petersburg
corridor sees temps reach the upper 80s. Given the ongoing D2-3
(severe to extreme drought) in that area, there could be some
fire weather concerns to monitor.
Showers reach the Alleghenies Tuesday night, then spread across the
area on Wednesday as the front moves through. Depending on how much
instability develops on Wednesday, there could be some thunderstorms
that develop in the afternoon. The best chance for that looks to be
south of US-50. Temps will be closer to normal on Wednesday in the
60s to mid 70s.
A fall surge of cooler air arrives Thursday night behind the front
as lows drop to the 40s to low 50s. The latest trend today in the
extended guidance is for the high to quickly traverse the area, then
shift offshore next weekend. This likely limits how cold we get given
the high remains to our north, and winds turn east to southeast by
Friday afternoon. Still, will need to monitor for possible frost in
the Alleghenies Thursday night if winds go calm in the typically
colder elevated valleys. Seasonable early October highs in the
60s to around 70F are expected for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the weekend, though patchy
fog is possible especially near KCHO/KMRB during the early AM.
Winds will generally be S/SE 5-10 kts or less, with bay/river
breeze influences possible for the metro terminals in the PM.
VFR conditions are expected for the start of next week as high
pressure shifts offshore. Some showers return to the forecast on
Tuesday, but coverage is expected to be low.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level southerly winds are expected over the waters through
this weekend with high pressure nearby. Winds will be lightest
through Saturday before increasing slightly to around 10 knots
on Sunday.
High pressure shifts offshore at the start of next week bringing
a return of southerly flow to the local waters. This could result
in southerly channeling Monday evening that brings winds close to
SCA levels in the middle Chesapeake Bay. On Tuesday, increasing
pressure gradients over the area ahead of a strong cold front
will lead to likely SCA conditions over most of the waters by
Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As high pressure builds southward, easterly winds at the mouth
of the Chesapeake Bay have weakened. This has allowed water to
drain out into the Atlantic Ocean. Anomalies are expected to
continue to slowly drop over the next couple of days.
As anomalies continue to decrease, tidal flooding is unlikely.
It will be close at Annapolis for the next few tide cycles,
however, and most locations will make it up into Action Stage.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DHOF/KJP
NEAR TERM...DHOF/KJP
SHORT TERM...DHOF/KJP
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP/KRR
MARINE...DHOF/KJP/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion