Gordons, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

571
FXUS63 KILX 190508
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1208 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very warm and dry weather will continue over central and
  southeast IL until Saturday, with  highs in the mid 80s to
  lower 90s. Temperatures look to cool down during next week with
  seasonably highs in the upper 70s to around 80 for middle of
  next week.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible west of highway
  51 through Friday, with a better chance of rain Friday night
  over central IL. The best chance (50-70%) for showers and
  thunderstorms comes Sunday into Monday evening.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Overall, forecast still looks good; however, did make some minor
adjustments to pops/wx grids during the overnight hours to better
reflect timing and location of scattered showers/storms
developing across eastern MO and western IL.
Auten
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
The mid afternoon surface map shows weak 1013 mb low pressure over
southeast SD with its frontal boundary extending southward over
eastern NE/KS. Aloft a 574 decameter 500 mb low was over northeast
MT and another one in central SD, embedded within a mid/upper
level trof over the northern High Plains and into the Central
Plains. An upper level ridge was over IL/IN with 500 mb heights
above 584 decameters over CWA. Patches of mid/high clouds was
over western CWA west of PIA and SPI while ample sunshine from PIA
and SPI east. Isolated convection was from Macomb northward to the
Quad Cities and lifting NNE. Better coverage of convection over
eastern half of Iowa into nw MO, southeast NE and eastern KS.
The occluding weakening front to push eastward toward far west
central IL by dawn Friday and to keep low chances of showers and
possible thunderstorms from Peoria and Springfield west tonight
into Friday morning. Have slight pops a bit further east on Friday
afternoon to BMI and MTO. Lows overnight mostly in the lower 60s,
with coolest readings around 60F east of I-57, with mid 60s over
the IL river valley where more cloud cover expected. Highs Friday
range from the mid 80s over the IL river valley and lower 90s in
eastern IL from I-57 east.
Latest CAMs shows a bit higher convection chances during Friday
night after sunset over central IL and into eastern IL overnight
Fri night as trof moves closer with weak short waves nearby.
Precipitation amounts still look fairly light (tenth to quarter
inch in spots). The forcing has trended weather on Saturday over
central IL as upper level low/trof weakens as it passes north of
IL. Mainly slight chances of convection with some areas likely
dry on Saturday. Highs Saturday range from lower 80s nw of the IL
river by Knox and Stark counties, to the upper 80s from I-72 south
with areas se of I-70 near 90F. Convection chances to increase
from west to east during Sat night and Sunday as upper level trof
moves into IL early next week. Best chances of convection still
appear to be Sunday into Monday and not quite as hot with highs in
the low to mid 80s, warmest in southeast IL.
Forecast models offer differing solutions with evolution of a
cutoff upper level low in central or southern plains by Wed.
Though Ecmwf, GEM and GFS all show a decent amount of qpf over
central IL Tue-Thu and temps closer to normal with highs in the
upper 70s to near 80F. We followed NBM pops ranging from 20-40%
but part of mid week could see higher chances of rain. We
definitely need the rainfall as the moderate to severe drought
continues to expand over central and southern IL (from Fulton,
Peoria and Woodford counties south) with burn bans as far north
as McLean county now.
07
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A slow moving upper low will slowly meander east across the mid
Missouri Valley through the period. A decaying line of showers is
pushing across the Mississippi River late this evening with an
outflow boundary turning winds WSW and gusting to around 20 kt.
This will impact SPI in the near term and possibly DEC if it can
persist long enough. Otherwise expect dry weather to prevail
overnight along with light and variable winds outside the
influence of the aforementioned outflow boundary. Another band of
showers and a few storms will be possible across central Illinois
late Friday afternoon into the evening. Low coverage and
confidence of impacts on station preclude more than a prob30
mention at this time.
Deubelbeiss
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion